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India’s southwest monsoon arrived over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Saturday, almost four days before its scheduled arrival date of May 20, and might hit the Kerala coast in the next eight-10 days, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said.
“The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is currently passing through 5°N and 86°E, 10°N and 90°E, Long Island and 15°N and 98°E. The conditions for the advancement of the NLM are favourable over some more parts of south Bay of Bengal, through Sri Lanka,” Skymet said in its weather report on Monday.
It is expected to strike the Kerala coast in the next eight-10 days, which also means that its onset over the mainland will be three-four days before the scheduled date of June 1, Skymet added.
The India Meteorological Depart-ment had said southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over the Kerala coast on May 30, two days before its scheduled arrival date. The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus four days.
Skymet also said various conditions such as cyclonic circulations, low pressure area and depression assist in the advancement of the monsoon and Typhoon Dolphin is moving across West Pacific, taking a recurve and moving away from mainland Japan, unlike Noul, which had brushed against the mainland of the Philippines and Japan.
The Met department in its first forecast has said rain could be below-normal this year at 93 per cent of the Long Period Average, while Skymet had said rain would be normal at 102 per cent of the LPA. Both the forecasts are with a model error of plus and minus four per cent.
India’s southwest monsoon is crucial not just for agriculture but general economic health, as less than half of the net sown area in the country is under regular irrigation.
