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The decision at the highest level in the government to defer ratifying the Paris Agreement could become a headache for the country on the climate change front.
The decision has led to the possibility of India being left out of the decision making table at the next round of annual climate change negotiations beginning November 7 in Morocco.
Additionally, India is likely to face criticism from global civil society for being the only large emerging economy to hold back from the ratification. The Indian government has hinged the ratification of the Paris Agreement to its membership of the Nuclear Supply Group (NSG).
It earlier indicated as much only to change its tune at the G20 talks in China recently, claiming it was yet to go through the internal processes of ratifying the Paris Agreement. But, in the Indian governance system, the ratification is a rather simple process — requiring only a Cabinet nod and not a Parliamentary approval.
The earlier articulation by the government that India needs to have enough nuclear power to meet its climate commitments and, therefore, needs to enter the NSG, too hold little water with the kind of energy mix the government envisages for 2030.
At this stage, India’s ratification, or the lack of it, will not hold back the Paris Agreement from coming into force soon. The agreement requires at least 55 countries accounting for 55 per cent of the total greenhouse gas emissions to ratify, approve or accept the deal for it to come into force.
As of now, 26 countries accounting for 39 per cent of the emissions have already done so and a host of them are lined up to sign in September, before the annual climate change negotiations start off in Morocco this year. But, a likelihood has opened up that India would not be allowed to sit on the negotiations where decisions under the Paris Agreement are taken this year.
Indian negotiators pin their hope on the fact that it might not be alone. The European Union (EU), which has to ratify the Paris Agreement as a collective, is finding it tough to convince all its member countries to also do the same with some like Poland holding it up in internal EU bargains.
“We shall be going to Morocco keeping alert for how it plays out. We have to ensure that we are in the decision making process whether we ratify at this juncture or not,” said a senior government official.
“I think the situation is still in our favour. Presuming only about 55 countries ratify the agreement before the Morocco meeting, it’s difficult to imagine a situation where the rest 140 countries would be denied space in the decision making,” said another official.
The decisions to be made could be critical to India’s interests. These decisions will flesh out the rules regulations and mechanisms for delivering on all fronts of the Paris Agreement, from finance, transparency, reporting to reduction of emissions.
Whether India is able to ensure its space in the decisionmaking with the support of other countries that do not ratify in time is one part. The opprobrium it would face from the global civil society may be other. One of the biggest annual emitters (though not on a historical basis), it has always been at the focus of global green campaigns along with China.
With China now positioning itself as more pro-active along with the US, India would become the single biggest target from the developing world for the green campaigners. The opprobrium though may be more about optics. Regardlessof when the countries ratify the Paris Agreement, it is to operationalise only in 2020. So, there is enough time to join in. A late joining will hurt the country more than the operation of the Paris Agreement.
“The decision to hinge the ratification of the Paris Agreement to the NSG membership was taken at the top-end of the government,”said the official. “As far as the Paris Agreement is concerned I guess there is not much to gain at this juncture from holding back but there always other considerations that the government can have in mind for such international negotiations,” he added referring to the NSG linkage.
“If the outgoing US President Barack Obama wanted the Paris Agreement to come into force as his legacy that might happen regardless of whether India is on board with it now or not. India linking the two (NSG membership and Paris Agreement) only works for us Obama is as keen to show India and China both ratifying the agreement during his tenure,” said a third senior Indian negotiator.
That may not be the case. In the backroom meetings during US Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to India, the US did not push it too hard for a ratification of the Paris Agreement, confirmed multiple sources.
“It was almost as if they had taken India’s reluctance into account,” said one of these officers. For its part, the US too has also not ratified the ParisAgreement but only ‘accepted’ it.
The Agreement provides for four modes ofcountries getting on board – by ratification, approval, acceptance oraccession. ‘Acceptance’ is the weakest form of doing so from the four optionsavailable.
“This would make it also easier for a future US president to walkout rather easily if he or she so desires. Considering that one candidate inthe fray has shown keenness to rescind from Paris Agreement if elected, this presentsa credible threat to the global pact,” said one of the officials.
“For whatever larger reasons the government may have decidedto hold back from ratification, we now get the opportunity to not be leftholding the baby if the US walks out of the agreement next year,” he added.
Some clarity is expected to emerge from the meetings hostcountry Morocco along with France is planning in the run up to the annual negotiations.The heads of delegations have been invited by Morocco this week to discuss theroad ahead. Another meeting, which will involve ministers will take place inOctober.
The decision has led to the possibility of India being left out of the decision making table at the next round of annual climate change negotiations beginning November 7 in Morocco.
Additionally, India is likely to face criticism from global civil society for being the only large emerging economy to hold back from the ratification. The Indian government has hinged the ratification of the Paris Agreement to its membership of the Nuclear Supply Group (NSG).
It earlier indicated as much only to change its tune at the G20 talks in China recently, claiming it was yet to go through the internal processes of ratifying the Paris Agreement. But, in the Indian governance system, the ratification is a rather simple process — requiring only a Cabinet nod and not a Parliamentary approval.
The earlier articulation by the government that India needs to have enough nuclear power to meet its climate commitments and, therefore, needs to enter the NSG, too hold little water with the kind of energy mix the government envisages for 2030.
At this stage, India’s ratification, or the lack of it, will not hold back the Paris Agreement from coming into force soon. The agreement requires at least 55 countries accounting for 55 per cent of the total greenhouse gas emissions to ratify, approve or accept the deal for it to come into force.
As of now, 26 countries accounting for 39 per cent of the emissions have already done so and a host of them are lined up to sign in September, before the annual climate change negotiations start off in Morocco this year. But, a likelihood has opened up that India would not be allowed to sit on the negotiations where decisions under the Paris Agreement are taken this year.
Indian negotiators pin their hope on the fact that it might not be alone. The European Union (EU), which has to ratify the Paris Agreement as a collective, is finding it tough to convince all its member countries to also do the same with some like Poland holding it up in internal EU bargains.
“We shall be going to Morocco keeping alert for how it plays out. We have to ensure that we are in the decision making process whether we ratify at this juncture or not,” said a senior government official.
“I think the situation is still in our favour. Presuming only about 55 countries ratify the agreement before the Morocco meeting, it’s difficult to imagine a situation where the rest 140 countries would be denied space in the decision making,” said another official.
The decisions to be made could be critical to India’s interests. These decisions will flesh out the rules regulations and mechanisms for delivering on all fronts of the Paris Agreement, from finance, transparency, reporting to reduction of emissions.
Whether India is able to ensure its space in the decisionmaking with the support of other countries that do not ratify in time is one part. The opprobrium it would face from the global civil society may be other. One of the biggest annual emitters (though not on a historical basis), it has always been at the focus of global green campaigns along with China.
With China now positioning itself as more pro-active along with the US, India would become the single biggest target from the developing world for the green campaigners. The opprobrium though may be more about optics. Regardlessof when the countries ratify the Paris Agreement, it is to operationalise only in 2020. So, there is enough time to join in. A late joining will hurt the country more than the operation of the Paris Agreement.
“The decision to hinge the ratification of the Paris Agreement to the NSG membership was taken at the top-end of the government,”said the official. “As far as the Paris Agreement is concerned I guess there is not much to gain at this juncture from holding back but there always other considerations that the government can have in mind for such international negotiations,” he added referring to the NSG linkage.
“If the outgoing US President Barack Obama wanted the Paris Agreement to come into force as his legacy that might happen regardless of whether India is on board with it now or not. India linking the two (NSG membership and Paris Agreement) only works for us Obama is as keen to show India and China both ratifying the agreement during his tenure,” said a third senior Indian negotiator.
That may not be the case. In the backroom meetings during US Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to India, the US did not push it too hard for a ratification of the Paris Agreement, confirmed multiple sources.
“It was almost as if they had taken India’s reluctance into account,” said one of these officers. For its part, the US too has also not ratified the ParisAgreement but only ‘accepted’ it.
The Agreement provides for four modes ofcountries getting on board – by ratification, approval, acceptance oraccession. ‘Acceptance’ is the weakest form of doing so from the four optionsavailable.
“This would make it also easier for a future US president to walkout rather easily if he or she so desires. Considering that one candidate inthe fray has shown keenness to rescind from Paris Agreement if elected, this presentsa credible threat to the global pact,” said one of the officials.
“For whatever larger reasons the government may have decidedto hold back from ratification, we now get the opportunity to not be leftholding the baby if the US walks out of the agreement next year,” he added.
Some clarity is expected to emerge from the meetings hostcountry Morocco along with France is planning in the run up to the annual negotiations.The heads of delegations have been invited by Morocco this week to discuss theroad ahead. Another meeting, which will involve ministers will take place inOctober.
