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Greek and European leaders are dug in before the country's referendum on austerity, as polls show the outcome of Sunday's vote is impossible to predict and what happens afterwards, more so.
Officials across Europe say a 'no' vote on the bailout terms demanded by creditors will deepen Greece's economic misery. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has told supporters a 'no' vote is the ticket out.
Five months of confrontation have yielded little more than economic malaise and political mistrust. Banks in Greece remain shut, commerce is grinding to a halt and pensioners are coping with rationed payments, giving the country a taste of the looming catastrophe if no aid agreement is reached.
"What is certain is that come Monday, Greece won't be facing just massive economic problems. It will be a deeply divided country," said Nikos Marantzidis, a pollster and professor of political science at the University of Macedonia in northern Greece. "Greece is on the brink of a new national schism."
Competing demonstrations took over central Athens on Friday night, forcing hotels and shops to pull down shutters and closing main streets. Police estimated Tsipras's 'no' event at Syntagma Square and a 'yes' rally at the Panathenaic Stadium drew more than 20,000 each. No significant violence was reported.
"On Sunday, we won't simply be deciding to remain in Europe; we'll be deciding to live with dignity in Europe," Tsipras said from a stage in front of the Parliament building. "We're celebrating overcoming fear, overcoming blackmail."
At the 'yes' event, opposition leader Antonis Samaras said rejecting the bailout would be seen by creditors as a rebuke of the euro and it would lead to banks being closed longer.
"There won't be any happy ending, regardless of the outcome," Sergio Marchionne, chief executive officer of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, told reporters in Turin. "It doesn't matter if 'no' or 'yes' wins."
Heading into the vote, Greece is split down the middle.
A poll commissioned by Bloomberg showed 43 per cent intended to reject the budget cuts and tax hikes demanded in exchange for financial aid, while 42.5 per cent accepted the conditions.
The survey of 1,042 people conducted by the University of Macedonia had a margin of error of three per cent.
Voting will be carried out from 7 am to 7 pm local time on Sunday, with the result likely by midnight. Emergency negotiations will ensue immediately, with Greek banks running out of cash. The European Central Bank (ECB) will discuss their emergency lifeline on Monday.
Euro-area finance ministers have said they might be ready to start work on a third bailout for Greece even if voters reject their last proposal, according to two officials familiar with the negotiations. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he expected a deal to be arrived at, regardless of the result.
Europe might have to get used to Greece being "in bankruptcy" while remaining in the euro, European Union President Donald Tusk said in an interview with Politico.
Financial markets suggest the firewalls built since a debt crisis broke out in Greece in 2010 will hold. Since dropping on Monday after capital controls were imposed by Tsipras, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index has gained, as have 10-year bonds in Italy, Portugal and Spain.
Whatever happens after the referendum, the clock is ticking for Greece. The Athens Chamber of Commerce president estimates the country has only about EURO 500 million in cash reserves left in banks, meaning without further ECB aid, ATMs will be empty early next week.
On Friday, Tsipras argued that the only way for Greece's debt to turn sustainable was a so-called haircut on obligations and a 20-year grace period. In a report on Thursday, the International Monetary Fund said Greece needed EURO 36 billion ($40 billion) from its European partners and better terms to stand on its own feet.
