 "Bad weather makes Assam tea output to nosedive in July, industry worried")
Above-normal rainfall, coupled with water logging and flooding, has affected tea production in the country’s largest tea-producing state of Assam in July.
Assam experienced torrential rains in July, which experts say was around 60% more than what it rained in the same month last year. If lack of sunshine affected tea crop production across the state, waterlogging and flooding made things worse for as many as 20 gardens. As per tea industry estimates, the crop loss in July would be in the range of 21-30%. Assam produced 91 million kg tea in July last year and if that is taken as a benchmark, the dip would be around 20-27 million kg this month.
“July month has been very bad for us. The rainfall has been abnormally high. The extent of crop loss though is yet to be fully ascertained, as per preliminary reports we are getting from gardens, it would be around 21-30%,” said Sandip Ghosh, secretary of Assam Branch Indian Tea Association (ABITA).
July is a peak tea-producing month when the best quality tea is produced in Assam. Though any surge in tea prices at auctions is too early to predict, losing some quality tea due to weather woes would surely upset the financial expectations of the industry. It is also to been seen if the July’s hit would have any major impact on the total tea production in Assam in 2016.
Industry feels recovering the loss of July would be hard enough. “We are a resilient industry but 100% recovery is unlikely. At the most we can make-up 10-15% of the loss,” added Dipanjol Deka, secretary of Tea Association of India (TAI).
However, production of tea in Assam from January to May this year (June figures are awaited) was 13 million kg more as compared to the same period of last year. If Assam produced 108 million kg tea till May last year, the figure is 121 million kg this year.
Though the industry finds it difficult to say how tea prices would behave after July’s loss, it admits realisations have not been as per expectation till now. “As per law of demand and supply the prices should go up if there is any supply deficit, but many times the law does not apply on tea industry. It would be too early to predict anything on prices but till now the price realisation hasn’t been as per our expectation,” added Ghosh.
Although the cropping pattern remained normal in Assam till mid of July; but heavy rainfall thereafter led to diminished sunshine, affecting green leaf production. Brahmaputra Valley also battled the problem of water logging and flooding. The worst affected have been the tea producing districts of North Lakhimpur, parts of Sonitpur, Dibrugarh, Tinsukia, Jorhat, Sivasagar and Golaghat, all in Brahmaputra valley.
The total rainfall in July in Dibrugarh, Jorhat, Golaghat and Sivasagar districts has been two times more as compared to corresponding month of previous year. Experts say crop production would be down by around 21% in July in these districts in comparison to previous year. In Tinsukia district, it is expected that the crop production would be 25% behind in July.
“Huge tracts of garden lands got submerged in many years in Brahmaputra valley due to excessive rainfall. The flooding of gardens also disrupted the operations of the garden in the peak production period of July. Distress calls have been made to the district administration but assistance for the gardens in the form of dredging are awaited to save the tea garden lands and the tea bushes from wilting,” said PK Bhattacharjee, secretary general of Tea Association of India (TAI).
Business Standard had reported in April how the Assam’s tea industry had of late been facing the brunt of climate change in the form of extreme weather conditions like drought or high intensity rainfall. Studies done to gauge the extent of climate change in Assam conclusively indicate that the state, and particularly the Brahmaputra Valley, has been witnessing changes in rainfall pattern and temperature in recent years.
Experts believe water logging in gardens is a bigger threat than rainless weather condition. A study found that 70% of the tea gardens in Sivasagar, Dibrugarh, Darrang, Sonitpur and North Lakhimpur districts were prone to this problem. Though rainless weather condition could be tacked through irrigation, planting of shade trees and use of technology in factories, water logging can prove lethal for gardens if continued for prolonged period. It could damage tea plants or reduce their capacity to produce new leaves.
Assam produced 631 million kg of tea in 2015 and contributed 52% to the country’s total tea production.
