The unusual heat wave in parts of North India over the past few days has given weight to the first-ever long-range forecast of summer temperatures by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which warned of extra high temperatures in most of the country between now and June. Excess temperatures of more than one degree Celsius in northwest and parts of southern and central India, and over half a degree elsewhere in the country, may have grave consequences. Worse, this follows two consecutive droughts and the century's third warmest year in 2015. Moreover, the average temperatures in the first two months of 2016 (January and February) were 1.5 to two degrees above normal. And, sustaining the trend, the temperatures in the past two weeks have been five to six degrees higher than usual. Interestingly, the IMD has sought to link heat waves with global warming by attributing them to increasing greenhouse gas emissions apart from the warming up of waters of equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans due to El Nino.
Thermal stress is detrimental to human and livestock health, leading to high mortality. Over 2,500 people died last summer due to a prolonged heat wave in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Livestock are usually worst hit due to shortages of drinking water and fodder. Heat stress tends to lower their productivity as well. This aside, hot spells are bound to exacerbate water scarcities - which are already quite severe this year because of relatively low water levels in most reservoirs. Official data show that the overall water stock in the 90-odd major reservoirs has already plunged to 25 per cent of capacity due to poor monsoon rainfall, which was deficient by 14 per cent in 2015 and 12 per cent in 2014. Apart from making it harder to meet water demand for drinking and other purposes, water shortage may adversely impact the prospects of power generation. Reservoirs catering to hydro power plants currently have 31 per cent less water than last year. What is worse, water scarcity may affect coal-based power plants as well, especially the inefficient water users. In fact, some power plants in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, including the NTPC's Farakka unit, are already reported to have shut down. The demand for power, on the other hand, is set to swell. Estimates show that every one degree Celsius rise in temperature leads to additional power demand of 300 to 350 megawatts in Delhi alone. Should such a demand spurt happen on a larger scale, which seems quite likely, the current comfortable power supply position may not remain so in the coming months. The impact of any shortage of power on the manufacturing sector and the economy in general is, indeed, hard to assess at this stage.
Thus, the central and state governments need to take IMD's warning seriously and initiate timely action to minimise the heat's impact. Apart from exploring ways and means to curb misuse of water and non-essential consumption of electricity, well-judged measures would be needed to mitigate thermal stress on livestock and human beings. Local authorities should launch public awareness campaigns on ways to escape heat-related hazards. Medical and paramilitary personnel, too, need to be trained to deal with cases of heat stroke. Setting up temporary 'day shelters', on the lines of the 'night shelters' in winters, and provision of potable drinking water, can help alleviate human misery.
