The future role of the United States in the world economy has been a recurring theme in the 2016 American presidential election. Republican candidate Donald Trump has called for a 45 per cent tariff on US imports from China. All of the leading presidential candidates from both parties have criticised the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a recently negotiated US trade deal with 11 Pacific Rim nations. And US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew recently warned in Foreign Affairs about a return to the "historical ambivalence of the United States towards global engagement".
But what do Americans actually think about their nation's future in the global marketplace? The first thing to understand is that despite the rhetoric in this year's presidential campaign, trade is not a chief concern for most people in the US. Americans ranked trade dead last (of 18 options) when asked about top priorities for the White House and Congress in the coming year, according to a January 2016 Pew Research Center survey.
However, when asked, Americans do voice opinions about globalisation. They generally believe trade agreements are good for the country, but have doubts that the benefits of such international economic engagement outweigh the costs. These differences cut along partisan lines. And, within parties, there are differences between supporters of the various 2016 presidential candidates.
About half of Americans say trade deals between the US and other countries have been a good thing for the nation, yet this favourable view is down eight percentage points since 2014, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. And less than half think such accords have helped their personal and family financial situations.
Thus, it is not surprising that only 44 per cent of Americans believe US engagement in the global economy is a good thing because it provides the US with new markets and opportunities for growth, according to a just-released Pew Research Center survey. More (49 per cent) say such involvement is a bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs.
But these views on trade and economic engagement differ between Republicans and Democrats and between the supporters of Trump and between the backers of Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders, the two Democratic presidential candidates.
Contrary to the widespread perception that Democrats are protectionists and Republicans are free traders, more than half of Republicans actually think US involvement in the world economy has been a bad thing, while about half of Democrats see it as a good thing.
When asked specifically about trade agreements, sentiment towards such deals is more positive than negative among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (56 per cent good thing versus 34 per cent bad thing). Republican and Republican-leaning voters are more negative (38 per cent good thing versus 53 per cent bad thing).
And there are even deeper divisions between supporters of the various candidates (defined as registered voters who identify with or lean towards either the Republican Party, in the case of Trump, or the Democratic Party, in the case of Clinton and Sanders).
Among registered Republican voters, roughly two-thirds of Trump supporters believe global economic engagement and trade deals have been a bad thing for the US.
In contrast, Democratic voters who support Clinton or Sanders see trade agreements in a positive light, despite their candidate's criticism of TPP. By a 58 per cent to 31 per cent margin, more Clinton supporters say free trade agreements have been a good thing than a bad thing for the US. Views among Sanders' backers are similar (55 per cent good thing versus 38 per cent bad thing), despite Sanders' criticism of such deals.
On the broader issue of US involvement in the world economy, more than half of Democratic voters who support Clinton think such engagement opens markets and creates new growth opportunities, while Sanders supporters are divided on the issue.
Notably, in terms of the future role of the US in the world economy, young Americans are more supportive of global economic involvement than older Americans: 53 per cent of those aged 18 to 29 think it is a good thing, just 38 per cent of those aged 65 and older agree.
Thus, any assessment of Treasury Secretary Lew's concern about a return to the "historical ambivalence of the United States towards global engagement" depends on which Americans he is talking about. Republican voters who support Trump are generally negative, while their Democratic counterparts backing Clinton are generally positive. If they turn out to be the two general election candidates this fall, as many observers now expect, the voters' choice on America's future role in the world economy will be clear.
The author is the director of global economic attitudes at the Pew Research Center
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
