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The Lok Sabha elections are expected around May next year but the race for 7 Race Course is already hotting up. The 2014 battle is likely to be an intense one and the stage is being set for a probable showdown between Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi.
Nevertheless, all opinion polls -- conducted with uneven degrees of methodological rigour -- seem to suggest two clear early trends. First, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be the single largest party in the 16thLok Sabha, and that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be the single largest pre-poll alliance.
Secondly, the ruling Congress party, which won 206 seats in 2009, is likely to lose anywhere between 75 seats and 90 seats. The popularity of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is believed to be ebbed considerably since 2009 and Rahul is not too highly regarded as a potential Prime Minister.
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Admittedly, surveys also agree that the unattached regional players -- Trinamool Congress, AIADMK, Biju Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United), Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and so forth -- shall play a pivotal role in the next Lok Sabha.
BJP president Rajnath Singh is leaving no stone unturned to persuade party patriarch Lal Krishna Advani to endorse Modi as candidate for Prime Minister, but is likely to go ahead with the announcement by the weekend whether the patriarch agrees or not.
Nearly three-quarters (74%) of Indian business leaders are of the view that Modi should lead the country after the 2014 elections. With Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expected to step aside, only 7% of 100 chief executive officers surveyed for the Economic Times-Nielsen poll backed Rahul for the premiership.
Political observers say if the trends thrown up by the surveys hold till the country goes to the polls, the ability to win over fence-sitters or neutrals could emerge as the make-or-break factor.
Like Modi, Rahul's popularity has also been waning as he polled 32% votes compared to 41% in January 2013.
Asked to choose the best PM candidate in the BJP, Modi again emerged on the top with 51% people favouring him. Party patriarch Advani finished a distant second with 18% votes.
In June, a Times Now-C Voter survey predicted huge loss for the Congress-led UPA, marginal increase in the tally of BJP and major gains for regional outfits.
To a key question, who should to be the Prime Minister of India, an overwhelming 37.7% of those surveyed opted for Modi. Rahul came second with 17.6, Singh got 6.2%, Sonia Gandhi secured 3.9% and Sushma Swaraj 3.2%, the survey revealed.
The survey suggested that the people are unimpressed by the BJP despite disenchantment with the Congress. The anti-incumbency vote will move towards the regional parties.
According to the CNN-IBN-The Hindu polls conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Modi emerged as the most preferred choice as PM amongst all leaders across party line.
While 19% of the respondents chose Modi for the top job amongst all leaders, only 12% supported Rahul. The incumbent Prime Minister came third in the race as only 6% respondents choose him amongst all leaders across party line. Advani was the least preferred choice with only 2% respondents backing him.
A survey by ABP News-Nielsen showed the voters favoured Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate, with 47% preferred him over 18% and 12% for Rahul and Singh, Advani figured with a low backing of 6%.
Apart from opposing the UPA government on most issues, though it has extended its support to the crucial social security Bills, the saffron party has yet not really come up with a viable blueprint on how it will do things differently.
The Week survey has predicted the NDA will win in 197 seats while the UPA may secure 184 seats. According to the survey, 32% people felt Modi would be the best PM followed by Singh, 15%, and Rahul 13%.
Modi has, despite all his shortcomings, several advantageous qualities. As the BJP’s election campaign committee chief Modi did manage to place his own man -- Amit Shah -- in charge of Uttar Pradesh. The theme of 'good governance' will echo in Hindi heartland. The state is so poorly administered that Mulayam Singh Yadav -- both the Samajwadi Party boss and the Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s father -- has rebuked the government in public meetings.
According to the Hindustan Times-GfK survey, Modi emerged as a clear favourite with 38% backing him versus 23% for Rahul Gandhi, and 14% for Manmohan Singh.
The BJP, caught in its own internal mess, would not be able to mobilise anti-incumbency in its favour, if the current crisis (read Advani vs Modi) continues for long. The polarising power of Modi will enhance BJP prospects; but ironically, it will also put a brake on the slide of the Congress.
