How to identify a mega trend

At a time of rapid change like now, investors should be careful and learn to identify the mega trends that are shaping up in front of them. More importantly, they should know which of them are really investable trends. This was the view of experts speaking at the Business Standard Smart Business seminar on 'How to identify a mega trend', organised in association with the Tamil Nadu Investors Association (TIA) and Mirae Asset Mutual Fund. 

A mega trend might not be one which lasts for a long period, but it could be something which brings in multibaggers, they said.  At the same time, the cautioned investors to identify fading mega trends to reduce risks.   

Sumit Agrawal, fund manager, Mirae Asset Mutual Fund, said that investors should not restrict themselves to a particular segment in a mega trend and should look at larger opportunities emerging from today’s fast-changing technology. One should also take the regulatory aspects of the sector into consideration while assessing a mega trend, he added.   

Naresh Kataria, independent director, Cbazaar.com, and a value investor, laid down his ‘GOV model’ for identifying industry trends that are also investing mega trends. According to his model, the particular sector or company should satisfy not only the Growth (G) criteria, but also have an Operating leverage (O), and the right Valuation (V).  

V Nagappan, a market expert, said that one way to identify a mega trend is to determine whether it is moving towards volume or quality. He added that investors need to be agile. “The concept of a longer investment lifecycle of 10-15 years no longer exists,” he said.