IAF must frankly tell MoD that national security demands scrapping the overpriced MMRCA procurement and buying F-35 through a single-vendor contract
Ajai Shukla / Nov 01, 2011, 00:09 IST
Knife-edge tension is guaranteed as senior executives from Eurofighter GmbH and Dassault assemble on Friday in the office of Vivek Rae, Director General (Acquisitions) of the Ministry of Defence (MoD). The purpose of the gathering: to open commercial bids for the world’s most ill-conceived and biggest international arms purchase. I refer to the Indian Air Force’s harebrained proposal to buy 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) that will be outrun and outgunned by Chinese fighters soon after they enter Indian Air Force (IAF) service.
The opening of bids in any big contract is a tense moment. Eurofighter’s and Dassault’s inordinate anxiety also stems from the fact that the IAF buy is crucial to their future. Eurofighter GmbH faces serious internal problems with partner nations scaling down their orders. India is desperately needed to restore the economics of production. Britain’s Royal Air Force has already slashed its order for Typhoons. And, last week, The New York Times reported that Germany’s Luftwaffe (which ironically spearheads the Typhoon campaign in India) is trimming its purchase from 177 to 140 Typhoons. Dassault is in even direr straits, with Rafale having failed to find a single international customer; there are just 180 Rafale fighters on order, all for the French military, which hardly has a choice.
The only relatively carefree man at the start of that meeting on Friday might be Mr Rae himself, who will be sitting on the defence ministry’s war chest of Rs 42,000 crore. But his good cheer may not survive the opening of bids because the MoD’s estimate – arrived at some six years ago – will almost certainly be dwarfed by the lower bid. Last month the MoD revalued its original estimation in a process called “benchmarking”. But Mr Rae knows that if the winning quote emerges significantly more expensive than the MoD’s “benchmarked” figure, the process will begin anew.
Such an eventuality would be a blessing in disguise; and the best way to sidestep this cockamamie purchase of overpriced fighters that will take heavy casualties in any future conflict with China. Both the Typhoon and Rafale are “4th Generation-plus fighters”, inferior in crucial aspects like stealth to the J-20, China’s “5th Generation” (Gen-5) stealth fighter that took to the skies this year. Admittedly the J-20 would need a decade of flight-testing before it enters operational service, but the first MMRCA would only be delivered to India by 2015-16. Five years after that, operational J-20s, of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), will be dominating the Himalayas. The IAF MMRCAs, already outclassed by 2020, will limp around the skies till 2050 since the MoD will rightly protest that Rs 42,000-84,000 crore have been spent on them.
The IAF sadly is shutting its eyes to this even as China’s rising aerospace profile informs the security calculus of other regional air forces. Japan, South Korea and Singapore are realising that a Gen-5 fleet is needed for a credible defence capability against the PLA. South Korea is set to choose Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightening II, the only Gen-5 fighter on offer in the global market. The Japan Air Self Defence Force (JASDF) too is veering around to the F-35 after Lockheed Martin was denied export clearances to supply Tokyo the F-22 Raptor, unarguably the world’s most advanced fighter. In 2003, Singapore invested money into the F-35 development programme; it is on course to buy the aircraft.
Given that a rising China makes choosing Gen-5 a no-brainer, why then is the IAF (presumably a rational actor) inexplicably buying Gen-4+ fighters? The reason, sadly, is the political-bureaucratic stranglehold over procurement in which any IAF re-evaluation carries a penalty of years of delay. In the early 2000s, when the IAF framed the case for buying an MMRCA, no Gen-5 aircraft were available for sale. The F-35 was under development but was not ready for flight-testing, an essential part of India’s procurement process. Unwilling to wait for a Gen-5 fighter, the IAF scaled down its requirements and initiated an impartial multi-vendor contest for whatever Gen-4+ fighters were there in the market.
Years later, as the IAF finds itself choosing between two Gen-4+ aircraft, it must also note that the F-35 is on the cusp of operational clearance. It’s manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, has signalled in multiple ways that it would supply the IAF that fighter at a fly-away cost of $65 million per aircraft (significantly cheaper than the Rafale and the Typhoon) with deliveries beginning by 2015. Washington has indicated that any F-35 sale to India would be expeditiously cleared. But for an insecure IAF, used to being shoved around by the MoD, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. The MMRCA purchase would bring in six squadrons of reasonably good fighters, even if they were outclassed by the PLAAF in war. Any change at this state, or so the IAF believes and accepts, would require fresh MoD clearances and financial sanctions that could take another three years.
But there is an alternative. The IAF must frankly tell the MoD that the situation has changed, and that national security demands scrapping the overpriced MMRCA procurement and buying the F-35 through a single-vendor contract. The defence of the realm cannot be held hostage to the procedural requirement of multi-vendor bidding; nor is overpaying justifiable if it was done through competitive bidding. New Delhi has recently procured several fine aircraft on a single-vendor, government-to-government basis: the Sukhoi-30MKI from Russia; and the C-130J and C-17 transport aircraft from the US. The procurement of a new fighter that will form the backbone of the IAF for decades must be treated with the same urgency.
Ajai - I will disagree vehemently with your post. The J-35 Lightning program is probably as much a white elephant as the F-22. Moreover, relying on the US as a arms partner is a dangerous game, considering the US provides arms to Pakistan on the western front.
While the Typhoon and Rafale are both 4+ generation fighters, our needs are too urgent to wait for a 5th generation fighter. The Tejas, the FGFA will complete the triad of air superiority planes we need.
While I am suspect that the Airforce shortlisted the two most expensive planes in the final round - the choices on technical grounds is perhaps spot on. The F-16, the Gripen and the Russian offering were probably below the French and European offerings.
You didn't mention a word about PAK-FA & FGFA Coming in IAF around same time J-20 enters PLAAF Service.
And They are better than the "FAILED" F-35. US $65 Million for a F-35 is a Pure LIE. It wont cost any less than $130 Million. So get the facts right. Also F-35 is No way Credible vs China as when & if War Breaks out rest assured US will stop the supply the Very instance and we would be having Overpaid JUNK occupying the airfields due to Spares and Missiles shortages.
Rafale & Typhoon are excellent choices doesnt matter which one India GOes for. AND the slash is demand is not because they are Crap but because the Europian Economy is down. Please restrain from Posting BIASED crap like this,
Hmmm... I won't mainly argue against this article...
But he missed the one point. purpose of India's MMRCA is not to counter Chinese 5th Gen fighter jet (J-20).
India already has Sukhoi/HAL FGFA for that.
In other words, why India requires to have 2 stealth 5th Gen Fighter Jet?
Cost is way higher than benefit for India to have 2 different 5th Gen stealth fighter jet.
I agree the fact that India is better off with F-35 but only realistics way for India to acquire F-35 is cancelling FGFA.
So before barking around why don't you think what India should do.
" 180 Rafale fighters on order, all for the French military, which hardly has a choice."
You make it sound as if the French military rather had another plane. This is silly. It was the French military who specified what they needed and the Rafale was the result. And as far as I can tell the French military is very *happy* with it.
Author seems to be on CIA payroll.
We cant trust Americans with record of enforcing Sanctions when their demands are not met.
N India buying 5th Gen aircraft from her. Big joke.
He his a paid CIA / US government servant, several of his articles earlier too favoring US defence products, shameless creature over cover day light spy
You guys are just crazy no aircrafts in MMRCA is match for F-35, and no aircraft in the world will be a mach F-35 besides F-22, and it is not for sale. Is F-35 is going to cost more? Sure then again what's cost of victory? Don't put all our eggs in the PAK-FA basket it will never going to be what the Russian will promise. No Russian aircraft was what they promised and never will be its not because of there isn't enough smart people in Russia it's because they don't put enough attention to details, its cultural there is nothing you can do about that, but it will be better then what the Chinese can put out there in the next 30 years. About cost overruns, is the F-35 has cost over runs? Sure so do airline aircraft like A380s and 787, should I say LCA? Costs over runs are part of new technology almost all the modern aircraft designed from a clean sheet will have cost overrun that's part of doing business.
Two questions even not touched: 1) independance in use of the fighters and ToT and 2) Total ownership Cost.
Even the UK which is the only prime contractor don't have access to the technology.
Total owner Cost: official US report are now speaking of a cost of more thant 40000$/hour.
About performances, the Australian Air Force is really worried by the ability of the F-35 to fight again russian jets (the recent report speaks of more than 80% of loss in the first 20mn of engagement again last 4,5gen fighters)!
Was rejection of US jets (F/A-18IN and F-16IN) was in fact a clever ploy to bring F-35 "on table"? Well, difficult to presume.
Perhaps Ajay Shukla can shed some light on this aspect.
Sayan.
This writer has been constantly lobbying for the F35. I think business standard should save itself from the shame of publishing such ridiculous articles on such sensitive topics, especially from as ill-informed guys like the author of this article!!
Ajai
I have no idea where you are getting $ 65 Mills from??? Are u referring to the news report when Hillary/ Bob Gates were in India? I will only believe that number if LM actually puts a quote together along with all T&C.
Pentagon itself is doing a "should be" cost analysis for F35 (all versions).
I usually make it a point to read your blogs, but your hangup with F35 beat my logic and makes me question your professional opinion..
IAF needs aircraft that can be deployed in Thar, Himalayas and Kerala.If that takes an "MMRCA type" contest so be it.
I want to see F35 in action to believe its capabilities. It is NOT a Raptor.
I don't know how much knowledge Mr. Ajay Shukla has about India's military projects... But for his information I want to say that India's Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), which is being jointly developed by Indian's HAL and Russian Sukhoi Corporation, will be available for induction into IAF much earlier than its chinese counterpart.. One more thing which I want to add that better technology always has bigger price tags that's why united states has only 173 F-22 Raptors (and They've out of production as well)... At last I want to ask you.. How much you've got from Mrs. Clinton and company to promote their product (F-35 Joint Strike Fighter) in India, Its a clear case of lobbying...
Mr Ajai,This article is as stupid as it can get. According to your logic an airforce should have only 5th gen aircrafts for all its needs. US should only have F22,china J 20 and india should go for only f35.Absurd and showing lack of research and knowledge. Different aircrafts are meant to perform different tasks...Currently India has been planning the following :
1.LCA for replacing MIG21 (Interceptor class)
2.Su 30 mki for air superiority
3.Mirages/MIG 29 for strike/air support
4.MMRCA craft for multiroles
5.Su PAK-FA or T-50 is being developed along with russia as a 5th gen aircraft. It might take 10 years to get into production which is the same time as j-20.So everything is covered as long as they meet deadlines.
Dear Ajai,
I am frankly disappointed by some of your comments in this article. You say these European aircraft will be out-run and out-gunned by Chinese aircraft. By which Chinese aircraft, may I ask ? The J-20 does not even have fourth-generation technology - never mind fifth-generation. Also, it is a ground-attack aircraft - not suitable for interception. The only threat from China will be the licence-produced Su-30. Our Su-30 is superior to theirs.
Also, the F-35 you recommend is primarily a ground attack aircraft - though it has good agility.In any case, the $ 65 million flyaway cost is actually only the initial cost. The flyaway cost will be substantially higher.
Regarding the single-vendor Government-to-Government procurement of the Su-30MKI, you should know that the flyaway cost has been increased from $ 45 million initially to about $ 100 million today.
I thought you might find these points of interest.
Best wishes,
Hormuz
Dear Ajai,
Why do you want to adovacate on the purchase of F35, whose fate is not decided in the country of manufacture itself. Chinses stealth fighter is a decade away from being inducted in a squadron, by then India will have SU 50 PAK FA. Request you to come out with some meaningful analysis
Posted by: deepak
November 01 , 2011, 21:56 IST
Agree with you dude...
I don't know how much knowledge Mr. Ajay Shukla has about India's military projects... But for his information I want to say that India's Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), which is being jointly developed by Indian's HAL and Russian Sukhoi Corporation, will be available for induction into IAF much earlier than its chinese counterpart.. One more thing which I want to add that better technology always has bigger price tags that's why united states has only 173 F-22 Raptors (and They've out of production as well)... At last I want to ask you.. How much you've got from Mrs. Clinton and company to promote their product (F-35 Joint Strike Fighter) in India, Its a clear case of lobbying...
Ajayji,
We have entered into a JV/understanding with Russia to manufacture FGFA (fifth generation fighter). This is enough to counter the J20 threat. MRCA will be superior to J10/J11 fighters currently under production in China. So stop this inane arguement in favour of F35. F35 is masively overbudget and is unlikely to cost less than $100 million in flyaway cost.
Wow, what a suggestion Mr Shukla, India should not even consider the topclass battle proven aircraft. Instead it should look for something that is non existent, so that we can address the challenge of China's non-existent Stealth fighter. Are you not aware of the PAKFA aircraft that India is working with Russia? Doesn't your common sense tell you that in about 10-15 years when China has its stealth we could have that Russian aircraft?? I was curious to read your article, but so dis-appointing.
With due respect to author, is he aware of the FGFA joint development with Russia?, which in all probability will trump the Chinese J-20, just because it will be a bit more modern compared to J-20.
AJ, do you REALLY believe the F-35 is going to come in at $65m when the cost has escalated to $140 million? You are talking out of the side of your mouth. We all know your bais towards the F-35 but give us a break about PLAAF future force. They have no AESA, the J-20 is a flying brick with hardly LO features much less VLO and has been relegated as a strike aircraft by its immense size. Rafale or Typhoon would dominate PLAAF, especially with Meteor. It is more than enough for the IAF to tip the balance of power. They certainly don't have time to wait years more for a new tender. The flying MiG coffins MUST be replaced NOW!
This article completely overlooks the real reason to purchase MMRCA. It is supposed to bridge the gap between the developing LCA and the to be developed FGFA (Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft) to be developed with Russia. The recent flights of FGFA indicated that it is far more advanced than USA's F-35 and China's J-20. And the mainstay indian fighter for the next 15 years has been decided to be the Su-30 MKI's and the LCA and MMRCA would only support the Su-30s. And the final addition to IAF's fleet would be the AMCA, which is known to be the most advanced manned fighter to be envisioned by any firm in the aerospace world. The planes offered by MMRCA competitors must meet 75% of the 5th generation requirements anyways, which is why the hefty price tag. Know your facts before you slam the MoD Mr.Shukla!
Its ironical that that Eurofighter Typhoon which is seemingly the top contender in the MRCA race will probably need another 5-6 years to even evolve as a true multirole fighter. Its hard to fathom why IAF is paistakingly selecting an aircraft which even the manufacturing countries are ditching in favour of the F-35. I think IAF could do much better by waiting another year and go for the F-35 which along with upgraded Sukhoi and the FGFA would give the IAF unquestioned air dominance in the subcontinent for next 2-3 decades.
Dear Ajai,
You want to learn more! MMRCA is not just about 126 4++G fighters! Its really about acquiring know how on high tech features like, Engine, Rardar, & Digital data bus technology! Its a must for our AMCA & FGFA. Russians are not as advanced as US & France in Digital data bus tech! If all things goes well, surely we can beat Boeing & Lockheed martin in 15 years! I can bet you!
Posted by: Arul Charles
November 27 , 2011, 14:53 IST
i agree but our intention is to gain much knowledge,we can't say Russian has poor technology the technology used in su 30mki is much more than any of MMRCA
Are you aware that the F-35 program is already doomed?
Too many Delays > increased costs > US and Australia will buy less plane > increased cost... and there are more and more delays...
65 millions $ per F35 plane is nothing else than a lie (even the Pentagon estimates the price willl be more than 120 million per plane)
Do you realize that the cost of this "fantastic" F-35 plane will be at least twice as the Eurocanard at the end?
And we don't even know when this plane will be available to flight in squadron.
And for our defense project, we are co-developping the PAK-FA with the russian !
Air superiority = PAK FA (T50)(better than the F35 or chines J20)
Multirole strike fighter = Rafale or Typhoon
That makes a lot of sense !
Cheers.
This writer seems to be batting for an inferior F-35, when the US isn't ready to sell its topnotch F-22. He has conveniently ignored the fact that when the MMRCA tenders were issued in Aug 2007, there was no Gen-5 plane available in the market. And how should IAF know then the US will be ready to offer its F-35. Now the US and its Lockheed Martin cannot fret. Now since F-35 is the only Gen-5 on offer in the market, it is a case of take it or leave it. The US is not showing any magnanimity here. And the article has missed the fifth gen combat plane project that India has contracted with Russia. Even if the project takes another decade, it will still be half-Indian. Till the time, F-22 or any other new superior Gen-5 plane is on offer in the market, none call call the MMRCA procurement silly.
Respected Sir,
According to deal signed with Russia we will start getting PAK-FA. J-20 will be no match to Indo-Russian bird. MMRCA is to replace Migs. Thanks
Posted by: maheshwaran
November 02 , 2011, 17:49 IST
Dear Enthusiasts,
Lets not popularise the chinese J-20 and making it a hero. As we all know chinese are good at stealing technologies and their only strength would be mass production.Donot go by the outer look of their planes. They are far more inferior to our Sukhois. This will really have sleepless nights for Pak AIRFORCE. India will be on top of the world in the coming decade. Jai Hind
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