Copper markets in 2017 will continue to see an uptrend fueled by continued growth in demand from countries like China, India and those from South East Asia. This is clearly reflected in increasing copper prices which has gone up by more than 19 percent.
The impact of demonetisation was a concern in Nov-Dec of 2016 but going forward we should see an improvement in markets and subsequent demand with more cash flowing back into the system.
Indian exports of manufactured & engineering goods continue to be extremely poor. Government of India (GoI) had signed various trade agreements with an intention to scale-up the domestic industry by stimulating exports but its proving to be highly ineffective. FTAs has led to tax free imports from countries in ASEAN & Japan which are proving to be cheaper than domestically produced goods and this is impacting the domestic manufacturing sector like copper tubes, copper rods, motors and wire/cable markets quite adversely. The main reason for this is the inverted duty structure which we have in place – domestic manufacturers of refined copper end up paying higher duty for their inputs (copper concentrates) compared to imported finished products.
This is a serious concern as it may render domestic manufacturing to be uncompetitive and is likely to impact the ‘Make in India’ policy in the long run.
Against this backdrop, our expectation from the FM is that GoI should not only promote FTAs but also ensure they do not adversely affect the domestic industries. These FTAs should be re-evaluated and what probably can be done to eliminate anomalies related to the inverted duty structure at the earliest to give equal platform to the domestic industry for competing with imports.
A major boost for the industry can come in the form of implementation of GST, which is probably the most awaited reform to be implemented by the GoI. Not only is GST slated to simplify the tax structure and, thus, improve the ‘ease of doing business’, it is also slated to substantially decrease the operational costs across all industries. This will bring in efficiency, proving beneficial to both industries as well as end-consumers. We can only hope that copper receives the merit GST rate as copper is very critical for the Infrastructure development of the country.
Sanjeev Ranjan, MD, ICAI
The Indian economy is a consumption driven and anything which can provide the fillip to consumption should be top of the agenda for the FM. We will be happy if the tax structure for salaried class slabs are relooked at, this will help provide more money in the hands of the people. Push the banks to lower lending rates and use the funds now available with GoI (in terms of expected dividends from RBI and having more money in system – courtesy demonetisation) to accelerate the infrastructure spending.
Only word of caution is – keep looking at fiscal deficit and inflation for any growth in these two metrics will negate the effect of creating fresh demand.
It’s also important to note that the performance of the copper industry is highly dependent on the performance of sectors like power, construction, telecom, and automobiles; hence they cannot be overlooked.
Given below are various expectations and challenges from these sectors:
Power sector: The Government has already planned to add 278 GW of additional capacity till 2022
Construction: Growth in the sector is expected due to Govt. plan on smart cities, urbanization & Infrastructure
Telecom & consumer goods: Expected growth in internet users by a CAGR of 12.1 percent (2014-19) & substantial increase in the penetration of white goods.
Automobiles: Passenger vehicles are expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.3 percent during FY 2014–20