THIS YEAR will be remembered as the beginning of the Magnus Carlsen era. Carlsen is not yet world champion. In fact, he can’t be, earlier than 2011-12. However, the world championship looks inevitable, even if it's tempting fate to say it.
Nobody has made world No:1 faster. In 2009, he’s won a series of events, outpacing very strong fields. He must be a shoo-in for the 2009 Oscar — it cannot go to anyone else. In the process of winning tournaments, he has racked up wins against pretty much everyone in the Top Ten. Many of his points have come from near-equal endgames, rather than “simply” preparation.
The collaboration with Kasparov could accelerate his development, frightening as that sounds. Kramnik said that he doesn't think Carlsen is ready to win in matchplay yet against Kramnik himself, or Topalov or Anand but he could be wrong. Of course, by 2011-12, when he could get his first crack at the title, he’ll definitely be ready.
Long before that, in April 2010, Anand and Topalov meet in a title match where the off-board odds seem stacked against the reigning champion. In terms of apparent strength and skills, there is little to choose between them. Both have strong, settled analytical teams to back them.
But Topalov has home advantage and a manager (Silvio Danailov) with a talent for orchestrating off-board tension. Danailov is also a key member of the Sofia Title Match organising committee. So there will be a lot of off-board pressure on Anand and that can be very difficult to handle.
Danailov’s Toiletgate campaign turned the Elista Kramnik-Topalov match into a cross between nightmare and farce. It brought back unpleasant memories of the Karpov —Korchnoy matches in Baguio City (1978) and Merano (1981). In those, Ananda Margis, coded yoghurt, and parapsychologists featured on the agenda. In Merano, Korchnoy was warned for sledging at the board — an unheard-of breach of etiquette and a sign of how tense things got.
The Sofia match won’t go into such alternate dimensions. But it's unlikely to be as civilised as Kramnik-Anand was. Anand will have to figure out ways to ignore distractions and focus completely on the chess.
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Although it’s been Carlsen’s year, it hasn’t been one-way traffic. The DIAGRAM, (Carlsen Vs Kramnik, Nice 2009) shows that the young no:1 still has chinks. Black already has a thundering attack and after the only credible defence 13.Qf4 f5 he went wrong with 14.ef5? Bxf5!
Now black is winning since 15.Bf5 Rf5 16.Qg3 Nf2 17.Be3 Be3! with the idea of 18.Qh4 Nd1! is curtains. A bailout with 14.Qg3 Qg3 15.Ng3 fe4 16.Nge4 Bf5 leaves Black clearly better but maybe white could hang on. The game finished with the savage 15.h3 Bxf2+ 16.Kh1 Bd7 17.Qg5 Bc5! 18.Rf8 Rf8 19.Ng1 Rf1 20.Bh7 Kh8 (0-1).