Geostrategy 101: Understanding the new normal

Following its retreat from Afghanistan, has the US hauled itself back to the centre of the geostrategic world? A new book argues it has but warns India not to give up its status as a 'Swing State''

Negotiating the New Normal: How India Must Grow in a Pandemic-Ridden World

Author: Saurav Jha

Publisher: Hachette India

Pages: 408

Price: Rs 699

In 1534, the king of England famously pushed for an Act of Supremacy that made him the head of the Church of England. The move was intended to break away from Rome, the seat of the Roman Catholic Church at that time. Henry VIII wanted a male heir, and the Pope would not allow him to dissolve his marriage with his first wife, and that breach changed the fortunes of Europe in profound ways afterwards. Such breakaways were easier in the past. But, today, a breakaway from the world order requires more than a legislative change and is harder to achieve when global networks are deeply linked. Meanwhile, the superpower which found itself diminished following its ignominious retreat from Afghanistan, has found its moorings again after Russia launched its war of conquest against Ukraine and it has hauled itself back to the centre of the geostrategic world.

The above analysis with regard to the United States and a G2—the US and China—forms the conclusion of Saurav Jha’s latest work Negotiating the New Normal: How India Must Grow in a Pandemic-ridden World. He contends that such a world would not be in India’s favour, which is pushing for a multilateral order. Mr Jha signs off warning the government, especially the political class, not to succumb to authoritarian temptations and give up its status as the “Swing State”. “India needs more democracy, not less,” he writes, warning that the current trend of social disharmony will have to be checked if “India has to take its rightful place in the new world order”.

The book is divided into eight chapters, setting the context for today’s geo-strategic tussle between the economies and the work towards establishment of a new world order.

Mr Jha does very well to link geo-strategic events with economics to rationalise the economic decisions taken by the Western world before, during and after the pandemic. His version of the world economic events starts with the global financial crisis of 2008, interspersed with historical events, and takes the reader to the Covid-19 crisis. Mr Jha points out that there is nothing new about the countries’ post-pandemic responses, they were in the making since the global financial crisis. He points out, though, that the pandemic has certainly accelerated such trends, for better or worse.

The first chapter details the US’ recovery from the global financial crisis and economic issues related to recovery, where Mr Jha also raises the topic of student debt. But most of the chapter is focused on Quantitative Easing, which has recently won accolades for the then Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke by the Nobel committee. The second chapter details the impact of the global financial crisis on the European economy and the ensuing response by the countries. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, or the BRICS, economies find mention from the third chapter onwards. Japan is discussed in the following chapters. The main focus, however, is the neighbour to the east, which is on course to making the world bipolar. Chinese geo-strategy finds more substance than the economy and the author tries to locate India’s position in a polarising world

in the last chapter. The Reserve Bank of India is a significant focus of the chapter. Instances of the US’ unilateralism are mentioned across the book, but the conclusion cements the author’s argument.

If you have been an avid reader of geo-strategic issues, the book has little that is new to offer. But for someone who wants to understand the dynamics of economics and geopolitics over the last one and a half decades, the book presents an excellent overview. The way Mr Jha has packaged the issues since the global financial crisis makes it worth a read. The problem, however, is the repetition of arguments on China’s rise and the US’ unilateral position, which appear repeatedly in the text. For a lay reader, it makes sense to put things in context, but things do become repetitive. Although the BRICS chapter does cover India and there is a separate chapter on India as well, it leaves the reader wanting for more to understand the Indian perspective and context, both within the global order and in South Asia. Charts and graphs are missing in most places and could have added more depth to the body of work. Nevertheless, Mr Jha does well to package economics and geopolitics.