Hong Kong: Future tense

From “just a collection of rocks,” the phrase used to describe it when it was handed over to the British under the Treaty of Nanking, the tiny island city of Hong Kong has been transformed into the centre of international trade, manufacturing and tourism. China leased Hong Kong to Great Britain in 1899 for 99 years. In just about a hundred years the city developed so rapidly that it has become central to global trade and finance. Hong Kong as a part of British territory also enjoyed considerable economic, social and political freedom and it thrived on this liberalism.

Given this backdrop, there was considerable apprehension when Hong Kong was formally handed over to China, after almost a decade of negotiations under the “One Country, Two Systems” template. On the eve of the handover, Beijing had made a number of promises to manage and preserve the “essence” of Hong Kong. But it was obvious that it would be a challenge to assimilate a booming liberal capitalist economy under an authoritarian state-controlled regime. Hong Kong enjoyed free media and academic space. It is well known, for instance, that though any commemoration of the anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crisis is banned on the mainland, it has been regularly observed in Hong Kong.

But in the last few years, political developments in Hong Kong have attracted international attention. Increasing Chinese control over the island city has brought to the forefront the debates surrounding the efficacy of “One Country, Two Systems”. Since 2014 there has been a rise in the number of demonstrations and protests resisting tighter control by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The rise of a pro-democracy lobby has been a major challenge for the CCP. The implementation of the National Security Law, however, has changed the dynamics and the fabric of Hong Kong’s political and social landscape.

Given this backdrop, the book, The Hong Kong Conundrum: The Pangs of Transition, is a timely addition to the existing literature, capturing the essence of the changes and development underway and their outcomes. The book covers the historical developments in detail, providing the readers with almost all the facts of the handover of Hong Kong to the British, its evolution under their rule, and finally the handing over to the People’s Republic of China on July 1, 1997. It also provides a detailed study of the negotiations that took place between China and Britain in the pre-handover phase, highlighting the major concerns and issues.

Though Rup Narayan Das provides the reader with plenty of historical facts, the book would have been more nuanced had he juxtaposed this with an equally detailed analysis of the last decade, which has had a lasting impact on Hong Kong’s future.

It is now clear that with growing CCP control, the space for dissent and criticism is shrinking in Hong Kong. If this trend continues, it will impact the global confidence in Hong Kong as a secure financial hub. In addition to this, the younger generation in Hong Kong does not associate with the idea of being Chinese. This generation sees itself as holding Hong Kong citizenship and therefore associates with the ideas of freedom and democracy and is zealous about safeguarding them. Hong Kong also has multiple political parties, increasing the pressure on CCP control.

Hong Kong’s resistance will be met with increasing pressure from the mainland for assimilation because it is an integral part of the “Chinese Dream” formulated by Xi Jinping. The CCP is uncomfortable with the notion of resistance and talk of democracy. Even though the CCP has complete control over the foreign policy and defence aspect of the island, (as stated in Article 13 and Article 14 of the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China) it still needs to mould society in tune with the idea of Chinese society under the CCP rule. Though the Basic Law states that “The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures”, Beijing is not comfortable with committing to a time-line for this. Hong Kong’s assimilation is also necessary to prove the efficiency of the “One Country, Two Systems” philosophy because it has a direct impact on China’s re-unification dream with Taiwan.

With election talk and debates surrounding the ultimate demise of the Chinese promise to allow democratic processes, to the recent refusal by Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam to seek a second term, recent developments in Hong Kong have gained centre-stage in global and regional political debates. The United States has increased its focus towards monitoring the developments there. India, too, is closely tracking the direction of Chinese policy on Hong Kong. In fact, one of the niche aspects of Dr Das’ book is the discussion which encompasses the history and role of the Indians. Indians form an important part of the population of Hong Kong and have been successful in leveraging their financial clout in determining the future of Hong Kong.

Overall, the book could be an important source of information for students and scholars alike as it does provide in detail the important treaties and documents that eventually shaped the future of Hong Kong.


The reviewer is Assistant Professor, Jindal Global Law School, OP Jindal Global University