India's China war: The next generation

Pravin Sawhney's book set in 2024 presents an entirely credible account of a robotic assault on India

The Last War: How AI will shape India’s final showdown with China 

Author: Pravin Sawhney 

Publisher: Aleph 

Pages: 424 

Price: Rs 999

There is an old saying that generals are good when it comes to planning to fight the last war all over again. This book’s title actually pertains to a potential future war, where India suffers utterly decisive defeat. But one reason why such a debacle could occur is that India’s strategists are indeed, focussed on fighting an improved version of 1962 whereas China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) plans for an entirely new type of conflict.

The book opens with a scenario of “future history”, set in the Prime Minister’s Office, in February 2024. A naval task force including the Vikrant has sailed to participate in a military exercise with the Quad, and the prime minister is getting set for a virtual summit with the Quad leaders.

China launches a cyber-assault that knocks out domestic communications, shuts down power, air traffic control, railway systems and metros. This is coupled with physical attacks by submarines cutting undersea internet cables, and electromagnetic pulse attacks to fry ISRO’s satellites.

That’s followed by an unmanned invasion into Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. India’s front line troops are swarmed by bee-sized killer drones. The PLA follows up with autonomous hovercraft, killer robots, and precision stand-off weapons hammering Indian positions. The Indian air-force is blind, crippled and wiped out and the Vikrant and its accompanying frigates and destroyers have also been sunk.

This robotic assault is followed by human soldiers to mop up the broken bits and pieces. A week or so later, the Chinese formally raise their flags across Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh. Pakistan gets into the act, of course.

Following up on this doomsday scenario, the rest of the book is essentially well-marshalled supporting evidence to back up the author’s contention that it could take place, more or less as described. Let’s unpack that.

This is set in 2024. It cannot make huge leaps of faith in terms of claiming the existence of magically advanced technology. Do killer drone swarms exist? Yes, even India has sort of demonstrated this (although that demo was, according to the author, done by sleight-of-hand at a cost of  Rs 200 crore rather than being actual proof of concept).

Do unmanned robotic weapons exist? Yes — the South Koreans have deployed smart machine guns in the demilitarised zone with North Korea. Does edge computing — local data processing and decision-making by AI — exist, and has it been weaponised? Yes, edge computing is essential in AI weapons, since remote communications and control on the battlefield will not be possible.

Frying satellites by electromagnetic pulses is possible; it even happens by accident and in cases of severe sunspot activity as well. The Chinese have demonstrated their ability to physically destroy satellites too.

The Chinese reportedly used microwave weapons to make Indian soldiers uncomfortable during the high-altitude standoffs of the last two years. The Chinese are tight-lipped about this, and so is India, according to the author.

Is India’s civilian and military transport and power infrastructure, and its communications vulnerable to cyber-assault? Yes — every modern nation has to allow for this. There is evidence state-backed hackers shut down Mumbai’s power supply and the National Stock Exchange, as a warning shot across the bows.

Does China have the capacity to conceptualise, build and exploit this sort of new high-tech technology in an actual shooting war? China is a world leader in AI. China’s mega-corporations supply vast quantities of the chips embedded in everything. It exports much of the equipment used in the power industry, and in telecommunications networks. It’s a leader in 5G and Internet of Things. Security researchers across the world have flagged China’s dominance of these spaces as a potential danger. There could be back-doors in those systems to allow for easy takeover.

The PLA’s military doctrine is known to encompass space, the electromagnetic spectrum, and cyberspace — it sees those as essential battlegrounds along with air, sea and land. Pravin Sawhney analyses the thrust of the Chinese military budgets to claim that it has funded high-tech enabled military exercises to generate the data needed to train AI weapon systems to function effectively.

Above and beyond this, the Chinese economy is approximately five times as large as India’s and it has end-to-end manufacturing capacity across all military domains, making its own stealth aircraft, nuclear submarines and smart munitions. It has built solid infrastructure at scale across Tibet to support any act of large-scale aggression it may war-game or contemplate.

India lacks the industrial base to manufacture most of its weaponry or even basic chips. It doesn’t have a toehold in cutting-edge AI R&D, nor serious budgetary resources allocated to military applications in any of these areas. Moreover, India’s military planners assume that any major conflict in Ladakh/ Arunachal Pradesh will consist of battles involving infantry. It has absolutely no defence against swarm drones, or killer robots, and no offensive capabilities in these areas.

The author’s advice: Don’t get into a provocative alliance with the Quad. Work hard to maintain the peace with China and its ally Pakistan and focus on building indigenous capacity in these high-tech areas. Above all, change strategic and military doctrines to encompass these possibilities. Whether you agree or disagree with the policy advocacy, this is essential, if depressing, reading because it makes an entirely credible case for overwhelming Chinese dominance, given the capacity gaps.