India’s post-Independence industrialisation model of state-led import-substitution attracted adverse comment from western commentators because it contradicted their free-market economic models. This perception suddenly changed in the 1990s when India fell in line with the dominant western ideology of liberalisation, privatisation, globalisation and deregulation. This sea-change prompted the publication of a large number of books and research studies by western academic scholars, ex-diplomats and public policy makers. Armellini, who was Italy’s ambassador to India, has added his mite with the objective of enlightening Italian businessmen about the great prospects for investment and collaboration with Indian entrepreneurs.
The author is keen that Italians should not miss the bus in this new emerging market. This study of seven chapters is devoted to explaining the complex dynamics of domestic politics and foreign policy challenges, which this so-called “emerging world power” is expected to face in the second decade of the “young” 21st century.
He sets the tone with his blunt observation that the Americans are interested in a close “strategic alliance” with India to confront emerging, aggressive China. The author substantiates this argument by referring to the exceptional and extraordinary nuclear agreement with the active and unambiguous support of the United States. By concluding a nuclear agreement with India, the author says, western suppliers of nuclear plants and technology for power generation in India were also motivated by the huge profits they would earn from the Indian market. But that, he adds, is one part of the story; the other compelling factor was America’s need to align with this emerging global power to counter China.
How does Armellini, an Italian, explain the domestic complexities of Indian society, culture and politics given that its status as an “emerging global power” is integrally linked with the political situation developing within the territorial boundaries of India? India can face external challenges if it can resolve its own internal conflicts and contradictions. The author is categorical when he observes that “democracy was the key that allowed such a complex mosaic to survive and prosper, providing the necessary breathing space between the pressures of Hindu majority and the interests of the different minorities. Without democracy, India as we know it today could not have existed.”
Having hit the sweet spot, the author provides a rich narrative of the reality of India’s domestic politics. Although he attaches great importance to the unifying element of India’s rich cultural evolution, the author grapples with a difficult question: “Does it still make sense to speak of castes and of their impact on the development of modern India?” He correctly observes that the “static nature of the caste system is in full view in the rural areas and also in the urban slums, which replicate the village structure with only minor modifications”. Modern India is a story of continuity and change, and the author touches a raw nerve when he writes, “Once again, the impression is that for the urban elite, the ‘other India’ simply does not exist”.
It is the familiar story of many Indias with multiple divides — urban-rural, regional, religious, social. The author describes it as an “artichoke-like” country, in which the leaves join in a single shape but remain separate and independent at the same time, co-existing in a mutual relationship of tolerance and indifference.
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Chapters five to eight are devoted to foreign policies and India’s emerging global role, a constant concern for foreign writers, especially its campaign for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. The author says this shows that the country has become “conscious of its new status” in the international power system. In chapter five, the author devotes his attention to the new global ambitions of India as a nuclear weapon state. The hurdles impeding emerging India are the not-very-cordial relationship with its immediate neighbours Pakistan and China. His broader message is that if India wants to be recognised by the global powers of the West, it should integrate itself further.
The book serves the purpose for which it was written: to inform the West about the Indian story and to convey to foreign investors that India is an attractive market. More cannot be expected from a book that is primarily meant to sell India to western businessmen. Its real value lies in conveying the message that India could be an effective counter-balance to China’s rising global dominance, so the West needs to build a network of alliances with other power centres, whether in East Asia or Australia because America’s power is on the decline. Such prophesies about emerging trends in various societies should be taken not with a pinch but a mountain of salt. Foreign and strategic policy analysts like the author may be happy to fly imaginary kites but readers should imbibe the message with caution.
IF THE ELEPHANT FLIES
India Confronts The Twenty-First Century
Antonio Armellini
Har-Anand Publications
432 pages; Price not stated