New House order

BEATING THE STREET

The winding up of the 13th Lok Sabha signifies the end of mini-budgets. From now on, it's going to be electoral politics until the next government is installed. It's unlikely that the 14th Lok Sabha will be very different from the 13th in terms of structure or efficiency.

Statistically it's likely to feature a coalition with many newcomers entering the house. That's been the pattern for several elections. Debutants rarely make an impression "" politics is a hierarchical profession. We'll see an extension of the same mindsets, feuds and prejudices of the past five years.

But the last house did pass some enabling legislation. The spurt in road-building, the structural changes in power, the telecom explosion and the growth in IT could not have happened without those legislative changes.

The 14th LS will see continuing emphasis on infrastructure. The BJP and the Congress have both realised that bijli, sadak, pani can be a cornerstone for long-term support.

Infrastructure is communally neutral; one way for a party to seek support outside of traditional vote-banks. It also doesn't hurt that infrastructure projects are high-cost. Relatively small dips into the pork-barrel can mean large sums credited to party funds.

There's a huge amount to be done before infrastructure becomes truly acceptable. Even assuming that roads under the NHDP and Gram-Sadak Seva schemes are built on schedule, sea-ports and urban infrastructure are mostly untouched.

In most projections, sea-cargo will increase at double-digit rates through the next decade. A major population shift from rural to urban environments is a given where services is a major growth area. So attention here is vital.

Airports have not improved since the year dot and the railways have degenerated to a point where taking a train or sending goods by rail is frequently a nerve-wracking experience. Both transport sectors need urgent improvement.

At state-level, e-governance structures and basic computerisation of government services is a long way off. Healthcare has not been touched upon in the past few years though it was mentioned in the "statement of intent".

Presumably the private sector will be pulled into most areas simply because the government lacks the funds to go alone. Unfortunately one obdurate minister can hold up an entire sector's progress "" as we've seen in energy, airports and air transport. Let's hope that portfolio allocations take this into consideration.

But the 13th LS did lay down working blueprints for infrastructure improvement. It will be the task of the 14th LS to look at thorny issues like labour reform and financial restructuring. Remember a "statement of intent" about labour reform that Yashwant Sinha made a couple of Budgets ago? And what about VAT? Or the fiscal deficit?

Labour reform is most urgent in terms of generating employment. The existing laws protect a small number working in the organised sector and deprive a far larger number of opportunities.

Without VAT, endemic corruption in the revenue collection machinery will remain. And, if the centre-state fiscal deficit continues to run at similar levels, India will eventually go internally bankrupt.

That seems absolutely absurd in the current circumstances but it could happen if fiscal reform stays on the backburner. Two succcessively poor monsoons and a global depression might do the trick.