India may have welcomed a “stable and democratic” Pakistan when General Pervez Musharraf became Mr Pervez Musharraf but now experts here are predicting his return sooner than later.
India has few illusions: Given the fragile foundations of Pakistan’s democracy, analysts expect both Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari to, fairly rapidly, mess up that country comprehensively, given the nature and depth of the challenges it faces.
India is also an imperfect democracy, as the cash for vote scandal in the July 22-23 trust vote showed us. At a more fundamental level, those who don’t – or can’t – vote also represent its failure. True, in relation to all the people who do get a chance to exercise their franchise, this number is small. But there can be no doubt that every democracy malfunction is not an invitation, as it is in Pakistan, for the Army to jump in and say, never fear, the Army is here.
In Pakistan, the regime of the jarheads is not going to go away in a hurry. In that country, the credibility of institutions of democracy — like the election commission and the courts — is shot. Individuals, especially leaders of political parties, enjoy enormous autonomy to do pretty much as they like.
That is Pakistan’s problem but it is also India’s. For when internally things begin to go wrong, that’s when adventurism on the India-Pakistan border starts.
Opinion is unanimous on that fact that Musharraf’s tenure represents the golden age for India-Pakistan relations. The parameters of the Kashmir solution — no exchange of territory, soft borders across the line of control, self governance with greater autonomy on both sides, cross-border consultative mechanism, a ceasefire that held and demilitarisation commensurate with decline in violence – was Pakistan’s virtual endorsement of India’s unarticulated stand of status quo plus on Kashmir.
While small successes don’t constitute a breakthrough, there was no breakdown either. In fact, more progress was made in the last fifty years than at any time earlier, especially on the core issue of Kashmir. This is no small measure, due to Musharraf.
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Musharraf made political mistakes like sacking Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary, storming of Red Mosque in Islamabad and doing a deal with the religious Majlis-e-Muttahida Amal, to name only a few. The first turned civil society against him, the second turned virtually everybody against him; and the third unleashed ‘soft’ Islam on Pakistan, making the limits to fundamentalist activity elastic. His greatest error was one that is commonest among dictators: Not knowing when and how to exit.
Now, although his exit has been plotted for him by higher powers, these are unnatural allies. There are fundamental differences among the followers of Sharif and Zardari; and while they may have come together with Musharraf as the common enemy, this bond can endure only so long as the threat of Musharraf remains – and it is vanishing by the day.
Regional aspirations and the nationalities question are going to remain Pakistan’s biggest challenge. Problems with Afghanistan and a resurgent Taliban have added to this. Skyrocketing flour prices, the free fall in sugar prices and sky-high oil prices will represent further pressures. What on earth will Pakistan do? Expect turbulence ahead.
The amiable Musharraf, (known to his close friends, unaccountably, as Pallu) and the person widely believed to be the power behind the throne, wife Sehba, will no doubt watch despairingly from the sidelines from their comfortable house in Karachi.
The other option is to emigrate – the Crown Prince of Thailand is an old friend from his days at the Royal College of Defence Studies (there was a time when, no matter where he went, Musharraf’s trip would invariably accompany a stop in Bangkok). There’s London and RCDS at Seaford House, resplendent in green marble, where he spent a year; and of course the US, where he would be a part of the “Coalition of the Willing.” Which will he choose?