Pawar: Bracing up to be king-maker

Two months ago, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) president Sharad Pawar had ruled out supporting Sonia Gandhi as the Prime Minister after the next general election even if it was the only way of keeping out a government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

A few days later he denied having criticised the "imported leadership of the Congress" and explained that he had "only been joking" when these remarks were attributed to him.

But the times of fun and games are gone. With elections looming large on the horizon, Pawar is now putting pressure on the Congress to clarify whether it wants to go into elections with the NCP or without.

Although the NCP's politics is hard to understand, it is clear that at least in Maharashtra, you cannot do without Pawar.

The Solapur Lok Sabha by-election proved that just a few months ago. The NCP supposedly supported the Congress candidate, Anandrao Deokate, but its heart was with Maratha leader Prakash Mohite-Patil a BJP candidate. The BJP won the seat, proving that caste loyalties outweigh all others.

Marathas are politically the most influential caste in Maharashtra and Pawar has proved time and again that he can deliver not just the Maratha vote but also cobble together a skilful caste alliance to lead the party to victory.

His virtually permanent role of leader-in-waiting (first the chief minister, then the Congress president, then the Prime Minister) might have earned him the sobriquet of "always the bridesmaid, never the bride" and things do not look like changing this time.

If the Congress does not agree to do a deal with Pawar, the NCP will have no option but to become a constituent of the NDA""something the BJP would like but not at the cost of annoying their other ally in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena.

While the BJP is certain that Pawar's tally can only go down in the Lok Sabha from the 8 MPs that his party currently has, Pawar's understanding and experience in finding friends and making governments is unparalleled.

With Maharashtra sending 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha, his position as kingmaker gets further strengthened on account of the fact that he actually controls a state government.

Sharad Pawar will have to perform some skilful political contortions to continue to be of relevance in 2004. He will have to choose between the Congress ""that he is in alliance with in Maharashtra""and the BJP that he is in tacit alliance with, at the Centre.

If the BJP sweeps the next polls and the NDA becomes irrelevant, then Pawar too will be flotsam of Indian politics.

On the other hand, if the NDA performs badly in UP and Bihar""as is widely expected- and needs every seat the NCP's support will be worth much more. It is that contingency that is Pawar's dream scenario.