Spying the patterns

How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence

Author: David Omand

Publisher:  Penguin

Pages: 293

Price: Rs 599

When one thinks of spies, the first image is that of the secret field agents, their double and triple lives, their deceptions and the risks they take routinely in the course of their work. They could be glamorous like James Bond and Jason Bourne or the grey men who prefer to stay in the shadows like Alec Leamas or George Smiley. The backroom boys tasked with intercepting and analysing dispatches, chatter on the internet or simply communications sent by myriad people rarely get much attention.

The author of How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence was the ultimate backroom boy. David Omand rose to the pinnacle of his profession, becoming the Director of GCHQ (Government Communications Headquarters), which is the UK’s intelligence and cyber agency. In 1982, a young Omand had accompanied his boss, Defence Secretary John Nott, to show Margaret Thatcher decrypted messages sent by the Argentine navy. The only possible conclusion to be drawn from these dispatches was that Argentina was planning to seize the Falkland Islands, a possibility the UK government had earlier thought unlikely.

Mr Omand’s book —this is the paperback edition that has just been launched — is about how to think like an intelligence analyst or simply how to think analytically, recognise patterns and how to deal with both a glut of information as well as fragments of incomplete information. Mr Omand explains the SEES model of analytical thinking that he and his team used. SEES is about building skills in strategic awareness, explanation, estimates and strategic notice. While the techniques were used by GCHQ analysts, it can be useful equally for businessmen, consultants or anyone who needs to deal with lots of information and sift out the real pictures from a mass of disinformation. This is particularly important in our networked, especially socially networked, world where patently false news jostles with real news and can often confuse people.

While extremely interesting and peppered with fascinating anecdotes of real intelligence cases, the book is not a particularly easy read if you plan to understand and follow the techniques. Mr Omand lapses into technicalities and mathematics from time to time, going into Bayesian and Heur analytical techniques. These slow the pace for the reader sharply without illuminating him or her. Frankly, in this reviewer’s opinion, these add nothing to this particular book as Mr Omand can make his points clearly even without taking recourse to Bayesian statistics.

Leave those irritants aside and this book is a good read for anyone who likes to dabble in understanding how to pull out patterns from a mass of raw information.

The most useful parts of the book are in understanding the pitfalls when dealing with a mass of information and data. As Mr Omand points out, to find meaning in a mass of information you need the context first. And the meaning you derive itself may completely be a product of your hopes, fears and biases. You cannot separate human emotions from the final meaning you derive, no matter how much you pride yourself as being a completely objective and impartial analyst. Sometimes, people would mistake appearance or ability with determination to do something. As Mr Omand points out, a defence counsel’s main task and skill often lie in convincing juries that his or her client’s capability should not be mistaken for intention.

Mr Omand warns against trying to skip steps while using the SEES technique. It can lead to hasty and erroneous conclusions. Later in the book, he enumerates other things that can lead to completely wrong analysis — from groupthink to cognitive bias in individuals. He also devotes a fair amount of space to explain how to avoid falling for manipulation, deception and faking. This is particularly useful in this era of Facebook, Twitter and other social media where it is hard to sift real information from falsehoods created specially to deceive.

There are many management consultants and academics who have written books trying to teach people techniques of analytical thinking. 

Mr Omand’s book is better than most of the average stuff on the subject because it recognises that gleaning a pattern from a random mass of information is not a simple process of just applying a formula. It requires practice, skills and overcoming your own emotional biases.

There is also the other issue — can a person who is not naturally inclined to think analytically or has not been taught about analytical thinking from childhood master the technique in adulthood? It is obviously not going to be easy to start thinking analytically even after reading an excellent book explaining a pretty good technique for doing so. It would require lots of practice and tutoring by someone ready to teach you and point out your mistakes.

Still, I would rate this a pretty good book for anyone interested either in learning analytical thinking or just interested in some real life cases of spies and intelligence gathering and analysis. But if you were looking for a breezy spy story with which to spend a lazy afternoon, this isn’t the title you should pick up.