The most enjoyable Par-3 contest and who might win the Masters

Matt Wallace, a rookie at the Masters (winner of the Hero Indian Open a year ago), pips Sandy Lyle to win the contest in a third playoff hole victory. He will not win the Masters, this year at least!

It’s true that, since 1960, nobody has won the Masters in the same year as winning the Par-3 contest. So, naturally a myth of winning the Par-3 for possible contenders (there are several past champions who play this despite having no chance at all to win the Masters) becomes laden with a jinx. I mean, has some supernatural power written an algorithm that makes it so, or is it that age old superstition of some event or thing being lucky for one or unlucky for others. It would be interesting to list some of those superstitions relating to golf, the worst of which of course is the trousers that John Daly wears to every tournament!

There were nine holes in one during this year’s contest and the total now stands at 100. Each hole in one brought forth ear shattering roars from the adoring gallery.  This contest is really a family “fun” test where players often have wives/girlfriends and children on their bag even as they display their very considerable short game skills on this jewel of a nine hole par-3 course.  The patrons (spectators) sit on the banks, sometimes 40 deep, under the spiralling loblolly pines, and see their champions walk past within a couple of feet from them.  Some are lucky to get autographs on the yellow Augusta flags as the champions move past them. Beer is abundant but, unlike in any other golf tourney, there is never an instance of unseemly behaviour.  

But the really serious stuff is going on on the fairways and greens where players are allowed to play more than one ball so as to practice their different shots.  Since most players are doing the same thing there is really no holdup on the course.  Players have to decide the landing areas for their drives but, as the pin positions will vary from day to day, they have to practice hitting their approach shots to the precise location where they expect the pins to placed.  On these most undulating of greens of any course, one foot here or there can mean a putt of just one - six feet or an extremely dangerous twenty five to thirty footers, or even rolling off the green to one’s eternal consternation. From 25-30 feet one just hopes for two putts as a little aggression or tentativeness can easily result in a three putt or sometimes a four putt.

Out of the field of 87 players, really speaking only about forty can have any chance to win, although each of them is hopeful.  The odds makers consider past and present form, horses for courses, and a host of other factors to decide the odds for the top ten most likely, but they also need to make money so some of these odds are skewed in that direction.  

Here is my committed position vis-à-vis the odds makers:

• Rory McIlroy: 8-1 (too anxious for completing all four Majors even though his form Excellent)
• Dustin Johnson: 10-1 (more suited for target golf where big drives matter more)
• Justin Rose: 12-1 (will be unsteady at the close owing to missing out on a win two years back)
• Tiger Woods: 12-1 (see later)
• Justin Thomas: 14-1 (still not experienced enough for this course, although very capable)
• John Rahm: 16-1 (extremely confident, maybe too much so)
• Brooks Koepka: 18-1 (same as for DJ)
• Rickie Fowler: 18-1 (not a good closer at Majors and has often disappointed)
• Jordan Spieth: 20-1 (the quad at sixteen still bothers him reflecting in extremely indifferent for. In  2018)
• Tommy Fleetwood: 20-1 (he seems to have slipped in his relative form)
• Jason Day: 25-1 (they have him up here because the Aussies are good gamblers)
• Bubba Watson: 25-1 (he should be much higher up as he can always pull rabbits out of hats)
• Francesco Molinari: 25-1 (is his 1918 form repeatable?)

Curiously, they don’t have Patrick Reed there, but he is talented and may repeat.

Tiger Woods is my favourite because he came close to winning two Majors in 1918 and, to the surprise of many commentators and fans, won convincingly at Eastlake (where the crowds were so effusive and excited as he approached the 18th green that all norms of good behaviour were abandoned. His playing partner Rory grinned all through this in wonder even as Tiger seemed not to mind the crowds milling all around him, taking selfies).

He has paced himself this year to arrive in peak form at the Masters, knows this course better than anybody else in the field and has stopped advising fellow competitors even if they are close friends.  He’s all set to win and there’s nothing else in his sights.

Tomorrow will tell!

Next:  The first day and the die is being cast