The pangs of transition

The title of the book is not only provocative but also suggestive of its contents and insights. Transitions in society or politics are not new nor abnormal. This is an inexorable law of nature; but the problem arises when the established order refuses to adjust with the emerging order or when the rising power becomes hegemonic; there lie the pangs of transition. The irony of the contemporary “new world disorder” is that a multi-polar world order is yet to be firmly established, ending American unilateralism.

Ever since the Peace of Westphalia (1648), the industrialised countries of the West have not only dominated the world economy and set its agenda but have also directed the political narrative and the discourse in favour of western liberalism, leading to what is known as the “Washington Consensus”. Today, however, it is an irony of history that it is the United States, the world’s sole superpower, that seeks to overhaul the global governance structure that the West created — the United Nations (UN) and especially the World Trade Organization (WTO) — because the East, China in particular, has benefited from them and emerged as the world’s fastest growing region. The narrative of the book revolves round the trajectory of current geo-politics, geo-economics and the emerging information order.

The way technology has impacted the global order ever since the invention of the wheel is no less significant. It is in this context that the chapter on “Making space in cyber space” is a compelling one, although the other chapters are equally insightful. This chapter comprehensively covers the evolution of information communication technology including the all-pervasive internet in the US and China. The disruptive potential of the internet, particularly Twitter and the Facebook, was demonstrated in ample measure during the Arab Spring of 2010. For many in the West, the authors observe, it was an affirmation of the democratic potential of the internet. The western media glorified the role that their technology companies had to play in bringing democracy to West Asia. The Arab Spring and the disruptive potential of the internet, however, also sounded a warning alarm to some authoritarian regimes. The authors say it is unsurprising, then, that in 2011, almost immediately after the spread of discontent, China, Russia, and a few Central Asian states asked then UN Secretary- General Ban Ki-moon to circulate their proposed International Code of Conduct for Information Security as a formal document at the 66th session of the UN General Assembly. This code of conduct was really the first step in what was to become China’s assault on the idea of internet freedom. The authors also observe that if the Arab Spring exemplified the democratic potential of the internet … the Snowden revelations ultimately shed light on this hypocrisy, and irreparably damaged the ideal of “internet freedom” as espoused by the US and its allies.

As for the Indian imperative, the authors opine that if Asia is going to be the defining region of our times then it must be intuitively evident that India, which has successfully combined economic growth with its own distinct and unique liberal traditions, will be the heir to and guarantor of the international liberal system. Although India’s economic reforms have paled in comparison to China, the fact remains that with a near $3 trillion economy, India has surpassed several G7 states in economic heft.

Three world developments after the publication of the book add additional evidence to its central arguments. The first is the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in China. The heavy toll of human life and its impact on the Chinese economy in particular attests to the authors’ observation that global governance rests on the realisation that security is not just about threats from enemy states or hostile powers; there are common phenomena that really cut across borders and affect us all. As with the earlier SARS epidemic, the Chinese authorities initially tried to suppress information only to discover that it was very easy for the virus to hop a plane and arrive in Toronto and suddenly become a global threat. The second development was the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani by the US as an act of reprisal. The third is President Donald Trump’s recent reiteration that the WTO needed reform.

 The book, authored along with academic Samir Saran, is yet another  opus  from writer-politician and parliamentarian Shashi Tharoor, who won this year’s Sahitya Akademi award for his non- fictional work  An Era of Darkness  in English literature. As with some of his other bestselling books such as Why I am a Hindu,  this book is certainly poised to receive wide acclaim as a critique of the contemporary world order.

The reviewer is a senior fellow of the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR) at the Indian Institute of Public Administration

The New World Disorder and the Indian Imperative 

Author: Shashi Tharoor & Samir Saran

Publisher: Aleph

Price: Rs 700