West Asia's Cold War

Cold War in the Islamic World: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Struggle for Supremacy

Dilip Hiro 

Hurst and Company, Pages 460, Rs 699

Dilip Hiro is one of the most prolific commentators on West Asia today. The London-based author of about 40 books over the past 50 years, he wrote his first study on West Asia in 1982 and has since extensively discussed developments in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Central Asia. He has also commented on religious extremism in the region and energy politics.

Again, he has regularly analysed social, economic and political developments in his native India and even the state of India-Pakistan relations. All his works are marked by painstaking research and attention to detail so that they are invaluable references for scholars, journalists and students.

Given the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen and the stand-off between the Islamic giants across the Gulf, Mr Hiro has now provided a timely and substantial account of the recent history of Saudi-Iran relations, their convoluted domestic politics, their competitions on doctrinal and political bases, and their ties with the US which have often further complicated their rivalries.

Mr Hiro traces the histories of the two Islamic neighbours, both of which claim “exceptional” status but for different reasons: Iran remains proud of its pre-Islamic grandeur, its significant cultural achievements, and its unique character as a major Shia state. Saudi Arabia is the guardian of Islam’s two holy mosques; it also has the world’s largest oil reserves. Uniquely, the country is named after its ruling royal family, which espouses Islam’s most rigid Sunni doctrine — Wahhabbiya.

Not surprisingly, since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 the two nations have been fiercely competitive in seeking to spread their influence across the Muslim realm: The kingdom encouraged Iraq’s Saddam Hussain to attack Iran in 1980 to overthrow the revolution when it appeared weak and vulnerable. The war instead strengthened the revolution and imparted to the Iranians a deep sense of grievance against their Arab neighbours and the US as they were targeted by missiles and chemical weapons.

The war also sent Saudi plans awry when, after the conflict, its Iraqi protégé turned on his patrons and occupied Kuwait, bringing in the US as the regional hegemonic power, sealing Saddam’s ultimate downfall and the destruction of his nation.

The two countries have also competed for influence in Pakistan and Afghanistan — with disastrous consequences. The kingdom and Pakistan worked with the US to organise the “global jihad” in Afghanistan in the 1980s, while in the 1990s Pakistan, with Saudi knowledge and assistance, promoted the fanatical Taliban in Afghanistan and also used jihad as its instrument of war against India.

These short-sighted and incendiary policies have made Pakistan a haven for state-sponsored extremist groups which, while continuing to attack India, have also become sources of indoctrination and training for “lone-wolf” extremists. They have also promoted trans-national jihad across West Asia that threatens regional order and even the security of ordinary people in far-away Africa, Europe and the United States.

The US has played a central role in fomenting murky politics in the region, particularly with its military actions in Afghanistan and Iraq after 9/11. While its assault on Afghanistan prepared the ground for Taliban resurgence, its overtly sectarian politics privileging the Shia in Iraq opened the door for the spread of Iran’s influence in a major Arab country, creating fears of an emerging “Shia Crescent”.

The ongoing Saudi-Iran “Cold War” has emerged from these concerns and has pitted the two rivals in destructive proxy wars in Syria and Yemen. The policies of President Barack Obama rejecting a US role in regime-change in Syria and then working with Iran to finalise the nuclear agreement had alienated both US allies — Israel and Saudi Arabia. But this has been corrected by President Donald Trump who has placed his country firmly on the Saudi-Israeli side. After withdrawing from the nuclear agreement, he has added threat of regime-change in Tehran to his agenda by encouraging domestic unrest among the country’s minorities, many of whom are Sunni. Saudi Arabia is also being encouraged to shape a “Sunni NATO” to confront Iran and reduce, if not eliminate, its regional footprint.

Mr Hiro has succinctly examined the domestic scenarios in the two rival nations — both of which are in parlous shape. Iran is experiencing acute economic distress due to US sanctions on its oil exports and financial transactions. This has led to widespread rioting and has also strengthened hard-line elements in the political order that favour confrontation and even talk of war.

In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman now enjoys untrammelled political, military and economic power, with aggressive actions against royal, religious and business personalities, suggesting that the hitherto resilient royal order could be threatened by internal dissent.

Mr Hiro concludes his monumental study on a pessimistic note, believing that the hostility between the two Islamic neighbours will not be moderated in the near future. This is a dire warning to countries such as India, which have an abiding interest in regional stability.

The reviewer is a former diplomat