The business cycle may have completed its downward journey in India. But, its chances for moving up continue to remain weak.
The reading on BluFin Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) for November 2012 was 160 compared to 160.3 in October. This came on the back of a month-on-month increase for three straight months.
The weakness is primarily due to a slowdown in the consumer sectors while production of basic and intermediate economic goods continues to improve, said BluFin, a Financial Information and Content company, in statement.
Compared to economic trends in 2009, the current recovery appears quite slow with the implied growth rate still nowhere near the long-term average growth rate (between 1991 and 2012).
In November, 21 out of 42 economic indicators tracked by BluFin showed improvement over October. Those showing improvement include copper, iron and Aluminum which registered rise in production numbers.
Despite a slowdown in domestic consumption, foreign tourist revenues recorded a growth as compared to the previous year. However, domestic air traffic growth (both passengers and cargo) continued to be negative, BCI data showed.
BCI is a monthly composite indicator of primary and secondary macro variables formulated to track the state of the business cycle in the Indian economy. Its components fall under four broad categories: Capital Markets, Foreign Trade, Policy and the Real Economy.