10, 9,8,7....the countdown has begun...Finance Minister P Chidambaram will announce Budget 2007 tomorrow, and the Sensex will swing as he delivers his speech in the Parliament starting 11 a.m.Of the seven years gone by in the new millennium, Sensex has reversed trends on five occasions while continuing the trend on the remaining two occasions. For example, if the Sensex moved up on days including Budget day, i.e year-till-Budget Day returns are positive, the index has ended lower during that particular year. On the other hand, if the Sensex had given negative returns till Budget date, the index has ended with positive returns for the year.Only on two occasions did the index continue its trend - 2002 and 2006 - where the index gained till Budget and also for the year.In a way, the index has never continued its negative trend....In the years 2000 and 2001, the Sensex had gained 14.7% and 2.5%, respectively, till Budget day. The index, however, ended the year with losses of 20.7% and 17.9%, respectively.The years 2003, 2004 and 2005 saw the Sensex slip 3.8%, 4.7% and 0.5%, respectively, till Budget Day. Eventually, the index reversed trend and ended with gains of 72.9%, 13.1% and 42.3%, respectively.B-DAY NEARS: For 2007, till date, the Sensex is down 2.2% (308 points) at 13,479. What will happen tomorow? Will the index end higher or lower? If it ends higher, will it be positive by the end of the year, and if it ends lower, will the index reverse trend?Will history repeat itself of the index never continuing its negative trend?Wait and watch....
