Fifth Element launches a crystal ball for Bollywood

If only Bollywood had a crystal ball that could predict the fortune of the over 150 movies released every year, it could have saved itself millions of rupees in losses. Only a handful of movies make money, while others sink without a trace.

At present, there is no scientific tool to predict the performance of movies, but that’s all set to change.

An Indian media start-up, Fifth Element Film, has launched a metric to predict the box-office performance of films and promises accuracy levels of 90 per cent. The company’s model is based on the structure analysis of over 400 Hindi films released in India during the past 20 years.

“Nine out of 10 movies produced in Bollywood are flops. Hits are believed to be random events, and it’s believed that nobody can predict whether a movie will be a success. But we have discovered that there are patterns to successful films. It’s now possible to predict the market performance of a film on the basis of this pattern,” Fifth Element Film’s CEO Doney Joseph told Business Standard.

Success of films depends on viewers’ approval, which is mostly a response based on artistic, social, cultural and psychological factors. While these factors are predominantly “unconscious”, they play a vital part in determining whether viewers like or dislike a film. The Fifth Element model is all about these hidden components that make viewers like a film.

”The Fifth Element model is a scientific tool that can be used to foretell the fate of a movie after analysing its screenplay,” Joseph added.

Fifth Element also claims to have predicted correctly the collection amount of a couple of Hindi movies like ‘Kidnap’, ‘Sorry Bhai’ and ‘Hulla Bhol’, and a number of recent movies on a trial basis. He, however, did not name the recent movies, citing a non-disclosure agreement.

The model is not just a predictive tool, but could be used as a touchstone to turn an average script into a commercially successful movie.

“Stakes are very high in the film industry and nobody can afford to gamble. Production and financing decisions can no longer be based on guess-work or personal tastes. Decision makers need the support of rigorous, systematic and scientific procedures. And this is just what Fifth Element offers – a model that brings the rigours of science to the art of cinema!” adds Joseph.

According to a report by consultancy firm KPMG, the entertainment industry is growing at 18 per cent a year and is set to touch Rs 58,800 crore in revenues by 2010, and the film industry alone is expected to cross Rs 14,000 crore.

However, the industry is sceptical. PVR Ltd Joint Managing Director Sanjeev K Bijli said: “I have never heard of such a product, and I don’t think anybody can predict the success or failure of a movie with 100 per cent accuracy. However, I think such a product would be welcomed by the industry.”

A Mumbai-based analyst also shared the same sentiments, and added if true, “this could be a solution the industry has been waiting for”.