Likely to be lower in general than this year, but those in education, healthcare, energy and retail expected to be robust.
While India Inc is holding on to hiring plans despite sluggishness in the economy, human resource (HR) experts and hiring consultants expect this would be less on average than last year.
They expect hiring growth for 2012 in the range of six to eight per cent, compared to nine to 10 per cent in 2011.
Sangeeta Lala, vice-president, Team Lease, says hiring in the first two quarters of 2012-13, would be slow. She expects the trend to pick up pace close to July. “The retail and FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) sector would pick up pace, and I believe even banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) would improve on hiring next year. Overall, there would be an eight-nine per cent net rise in hiring around mid-2012, though some industries may reach even 15-20 per cent. Hotels and hospitality, where hiring was stable this year, are expected to march ahead next year,” says Lala.
The sluggish growth is evident in a Ma Foi Randstad Employment Survey of October. It shows a decrease of 229,500 jobs against the prediction of 1.6 million made at the beginning of 2011. “We have to acknowledge that uncertainty in the global economies has impacted the Indian market, in spite of the positive sentiments displayed at 2011 beginning. There might be a five-six per cent upward movement after March. While we cannot expect the robust sentiment of early 2011 to continue, the estimated healthy growth rate of the Indian economy at 7.8 per cent to eight per cent adds hope,” says E Balaji, managing director & chief economic officer, Ma Foi Randstad.
Amit Bansal, CEO, Purple Leap, says, “In engineering, the bulk of recruitment is in the information technology (IT) sector. The sentiment has changed over time. In mid-2011, there was a 25-30 per cent increase for freshers in IT. In the later half, that sentiment changed. People are cautious. I believe that in the first quarter of 2012, the sentiment would be to wait and watch.”
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This is evident from some of the comments made by technology companies.While they said attrition would come down due to the economic uncertainty, many added that fresher intake might be lower than what it had been. For instance, iGATE Patni in a media report said campus hiring might come down significantly next year.
| ON THE JOB |
| * 2012 average hiring to be in the range of 6-8% |
| * Compensation rise around 8% |
| * Sectors like e-commerce, health, pharma, education to be more bullish |
| * Education, training and consultancy sector to add 20,700 jobs and healthcare 58,700 jobs in CY2011, says study |
According to a recent global Harvard Business Review Economic Survey, only 41 per cent of the companies expressed their intention to hire next year. “India is a budding market, but the economic policies and infrastructure pose a huge challenge, which threatens their growth,” he says.
Consultancy firms like KPMG also reiterate that this moderate degree of aggression was evident in the bonuses and compensation in 2011, and might continue in 2012.
Ganesh Shermon, management consultant, KPMG Advisory, said in the coming year, compensation would be moderate, at a mean level of eight per cent. He says manpower planning and optimisation would be the buzzword. But it is not all gloom and doom.. HR experts believe certain sectors would do better than others. These include e-commerce, education, retail and FMCG.
James Agrawal, consulting director & head, BTI Consultants (executive search division for Kelly Services India), says, “The current scenario is more about the sentiment. While 2011 started with great excitement, with excellent growth numbers in mind, the excitement died with the negative news emerging from Europe. For 2012, one could predict it belongs to e-commerce related technologies, with the sectors to be watched being education, healthcare, energy and retail.”
Experts do feel the BFSI and telecom sectors would witness slowdown. “Pharma and consumer sectors are continuing their march in a sector considered recession-proof. The big change we are witnessing is that companies are increasingly looking at entry-level hiring and ‘promote from within’ to stabilise their wage costs,” says Subeer Bakshi, director, Talent and Rewards Practice, Tower Watson India.