Mallya's fight for BDA hits block

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's (RSS) formulation that victory in three states""Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Karnataka""will enable the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to cruise towards 200 to 225 Lok Sabha seats, does not appear to correspond with ground realities.

The organisation also warns that if the BJP performs below expectation in these states, it is unlikely to touch 200 seats.

In Uttar Pradesh (see accompanying report) factional wars have already started. In Assam, the RSS says the BJP could get up to seven seats up from the current two.

"But it is from Karnataka that we have high hopes," RSS spokesman Ram Madhav said. The dissolved Lok Sabha had 18 MPs from the Congress and seven from the BJP of which one MP, Vijay Sankeshwar from Dharwad, has broken off to form a regional party.

Madhav said because of a combination of anti-incumbency of the SM Krishna government; the vast organisational network of the RSS; and the backing of three important dharmacharyas in the state""Sringeri, Udupi and SriSri; the BJP would be able to topple the Congress, even though the election would be markedly emotion-less.

But on all three counts, the BJP's optimism does not seem well-placed. Anti incumbency is likely to be offset by Krishna's Vijaya Dundubhi Yatra, launched two days ago. His campaign point is: droughts are not man-made and the state will take care of the farmers.

Less than two weeks ago, the Udupi Pejawar Swami went in for a meeting with SM Krishna and came out to tell cameras he hoped the Krishna government would return to power. "The Sringeri Shankaracharya never supports any political party," sources said.

Party loyalties have, however, undergone a tectonic change. After Ramakrishna Hegde's death, Janata Dal leaders owing loyalty to him drifted away in three directions.

Some came to the Congress, others went to the BJP and a few joined former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda's Janata Dal (Secular).

The Congress succeeded in snaffling a large number of the Janata Dal legislators, especially from Belgaum and Kolar. All five sitting MLAs from Belgaum joined the Congress and four sitting MLAs in Kolar.

Sources in the Karnataka Congress said the entry of "foreign elements" into the Congress had altered the balance of power in these two districts and created factional feuds where none existed earlier.

But they point out that the BJP was also saddled with the same problem after the entry of Bangarappa into the party.

Bangarappa recently faced hostile crowds of workers in Shimoga who wanted to know how they could support BJP leaders like Yediyurappa whom they had criticised for being communal till a week ago.

State BJP chief Anantha Kumar is also said to be unhappy at Bangarappa's induction in the party.

Even assuming that Bangarappa overcomes the handicap for switching parties in his area of influence, Karwar, and gets his supporters to vote for the BJP, "in vast tracts of rural Karnataka the BJP-RSS have just no hold," BK Chandrashekar, a minister in the Krishna government, told Business Standard.

The areas where the RSS has some standing is north Karnataka""the Hubli-Dharwad region""and some parts of south Karnataka""Mangalore and Udupi. The victory of Dhananjaya Kumar from Mangalore testifies to this.

But in the Assembly polls the BJP did badly in these regions. In the Mysore, Tumkur and Mandya regions there was no BJP worth the name, Chandrashekar said.

In the circumstances, the Congress tally in the Lok Sabha could come down from 18 to 15 or 16 MPs. But by no means was there a "sweep-like" atmosphere for the BJP, party sources in Delhi said.

Because Karnataka is facing Lok Sabha and Assembly polls together, it is Krishna's personality that will swing the election, not so much Sonia Gandhi's.

Therefore, the foreign origins issue that the BJP is hoping will sell in the state, will be countered by Congress campaigning for Krishna.