November may be worse, say car firms

Sales expected to dip 15% - one of the worst monthly falls.

With banks refusing to reduce interest rate on auto loans, car sales are expected to fall by 15 per cent in November — one of the worst monthly falls, at least in the last four years.

Reluctance on the part of leading private banks to either soften interest rates on car loans or ease the stringent lending criteria even after RBI aggressively pruned its key lending rates in the last two months, has led to a major slump in demand for automobiles.

Car makers say the situation has worsened of late with the consumers postponing purchases on the expectation that prices will come down over Finance minister P Chidambaram's recent appeal to the automobile industry to slash vehicle prices.

Last month, the car sales recorded a fall of nearly 10 per cent when compared to the same month of the previous year. "The going has become extremely tough, we do not expect the industry to record any growth this month. We are trying to avoid being in the red too. However, I expect the rest of the car industry to be in the negative in the current month," said Arvind Saxena, senior V-P (marketing and sales), Hyundai Motor India.

Recently, some of the leading auto makers, including Maruti Suzuki, had announced production cuts at its plants. Auto dealers are also at the receiving end of the slowdown. In many parts of the country, dealers, saddled with a huge inventory of unsold cars, are forced to shell out huge discounts, generally from their own account, in order to clear stocks.

"Things have surely started to take an ugly turn. Not only bookings have fallen dramatically, but in some markets they are facing cancellations also. There should be a fall of 15 per cent in overall sales this month. We fear that customers will hold back their purchases to March next year with a hope of an excise duty reduction in the upcoming budget," said S P Shah, president of Federation of Automobile Dealers Association, which is the apex body of dealers in the country.

The car segment posted growth of 3.5 per cent from April to October this financial year as against 13.4 per cent recorded during the seven-month period last year. Apart from October, the segment recorded fall in August and July. Jnaneswar Sen, vice-president of Honda Siel Cars India, said, "All our models, except the new City, are not doing well. Sales have been down drastically, well-to-do consumers are coming into showrooms but are disappointed due to lack of adequate financial provision. We do not foresee a helpful period."

The recent announcements about price hikes by two of the leading car-makers — Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai — have only deterred prospective buyers, believe analysts. Maruti had hiked prices by 1 per cent, while Hyundai had said it will look at a 2- per cent hike, although there has not been any upward revision yet.

The monthly sales numbers, which are handed out by auto companies, display wholesale dispatches from their factories and not the actual retail numbers. Manufacturers have been pushing inventory till the end of last month. Many analysts feel that the current month will pull out a much clearer picture of the turmoil.

"Baring two-wheelers, which may report healthy sales in the northern market, the four-wheeler industry will report flattish to negative growth this month. Last year in the same month, the segment reported good sales, which means that there will be high base to match with," said S Ramnath, auto analyst, SSKI Securities.