Is the fall in the country’s mobile subscriber base an indication of tough times for the industry? Not really, if one analyses the data.
Data released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India a few days earlier showed the number of wireless subscribers fell from 934.09 million in June to 913.49 million subscribers in July, a fall of 2.2 per cent.
In the same period, the number of Reliance Communications’ subscribers fell a staggering 20.49 million to 134 million.
However, if one looks at the numbers carefully, the number of active subscribers (customers who made at least one revenue call in the last 60 days), one sees a different picture. Active subscribers for the industry rose from 695.8 million in June to 698.08 million in July, an increase of three million in a month. Though the growth is not high, it is a clear sign operators are focusing on improving average revenue per user (ARPU), rather than wooing subscribers.
Also, the fall in Reliance Communications’ subscribers is not as steep as it appears. Its active subscriber base fell marginally, declining from 102.49 million in June to 101.93 million in July. This is because the percentage of active subscribers, also called visitor location register (VLR) subscribers, to the total subscriber base rose from 66 per cent to 76 per cent in a month.
It’s a trend that is clearly discernable for the last few months — operators are doing away with customers who aren’t active, and do not bring in any revenue. Rajan Matthew, director general of the Cellular Operators Association of India, says, “We do not think our cleaning-up would impact overall revenues. Hopefully, these would push up ARPUs. The effort has been to shift from securing more subscribers to more subscription.”
The reason is simple — the government’s policy has changed. The criterion to secure additional spectrum is no longer based on subscriber numbers, when subscribers were worth retaining even if they did not bring revenue. Under the new policy, telecom spectrum would be auctioned. Second, as most operators now have to spend a lot, either to pay for the 2G spectrum auctions or to roll out 3G and 4G networks, they are looking for funding from banks and trying to get subsidiaries listed. However, to secure funds from investors or banks, they are ensuring ARPU improves. By disconnecting customers who aren’t active, operators would be able to record a better ARPU. This is another reason why operators are on a cleaning-up act.
Telecom analyst Mahesh Uppal says, “Of course, subscriber growth would plateau, as urban markets are saturating and rural markets are slowing. So, we will see shallow growth. Also, operators are not giving free SIM cards, as was the case earlier, when securing a subscriber who did account for revenue added to one’s valuation, as well as get more spectrum.”
There is a third reason. The government has applied the brakes on operators to issue fresh numbers. It has clarified telecom companies have to clean up their books and reuse old numbers.