Will <I>Udta Punjab</I> fly well?

Many A-certified films have done well in recent years

All publicity is good publicity. And, given the censorship debate around Abhishek Chaubey’s Udta Punjab, expectations from the film are high.

No amount of publicity will, however, change the fact that the film deals with a sensitive topic in a seemingly graphic (from the looks of the trailers) manner and has earned an ‘A’ certificate from the Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC). Considering this, commercial success will depend on acceptance of the content and the ensuing word of mouth.

The film stars Shahid Kapoor, Alia Bhatt, Diljit Dosanjh and Kareena Kapoor Khan in pivotal roles and is produced by Phantom Films, in association with Balaji Telefilms. Phantom is a creative production house/studio, set up by entrepreneur Madhu Mantena and directors Anurag Kashyap, Vikramaditya Motwane and Vikas Bahl. It is the creative force behind films like Queen, NH10, Lootera and Masaan.

Suniel Wadhwa, an independent distributor and box office analyst, says: “The censorship controversy has certainly raised the profile of the film. Any controversy helps a film in many ways, as you have to break through an enormous wall of noise these days, where everyone is clamouring for attention. The CBFC debate has helped Udta Punjab stand out.”

He, however, warns, “Controversy is a double-edged sword. Sometimes, people might interpret as if the film is using the controversy to market itself.” The film is expected to release in around 2,500 screens, if no state passes a stay order on the release in a particular territory/market.

While the audience has been narrowed with the 'A' certification, the makers can take courage from the fact that many such films have seen success at the box office in recent years. 2013’s Grand Masti earned the distinction of being the first A-certified film in India to cross the Rs 100-crore mark. It also emerged as one of the most profitable movies of the year. Vidya Balan’s Dirty  Picture also raked in the moolah and the appreciation while other examples like Kaminey, Delhi Belly and Ishiqiya have also been profitable ventures.

The important thing is that the profitability (except Grand Masti's) comes from the rational costing, more than high box office collections. Makers are conscious that films cater to a niche market, and need to cost these accordingly. Made at Rs 45 crore (approximately), Udta Punjab is on the costlier side.  

Analysts believe ancillary revenues for the film might also be impacted by the A-certificate. While the music rights are expected to fetch around Rs 6 crore and foreign rights (distribution) another Rs 5.5 crore, the satellite rights, which contribute the highest to ancillary revenues, might take a hit. While the earlier estimate for the deal was Rs 10 crore, the makers might now have to settle for a smaller sum. A lot will depend on the performance at the box office as well.

While the audience has been restricted by the content and the certification, moviegoers will also not be stranded for choice this weekend. Disney Pixar’s Finding Dory will be making its way to more than 600 screens in the country, giving children and family audiences an option. It is in fact the only family-appealing film to release this weekend, and, incidentally, caters to the same target audience that is left out by Udta Punjab. The studio has been marketing the film through tie-ups with media houses to host special ‘Bring your kids to work’ activities, wherein children were treated to fun Dory-related activities, to build affinity towards the character.

In addition, Disney India has partnered with PVR Cinemas for special ‘Doryminders’, reminding people of movie-going etiquette and a ‘Finding Dory’ treasure hunt, which allows lucky movie goers to win exciting prices.

Disney has also partnered with Imagica and Hamleys for Dory-centric activities, and photo opportunities with interactive standees.