A tale of two future PMs: aggressive Modi vs shy Rahul

Modi scores on personality, Rahul has a family name; if the Gandhi scion flopped in UP, the NaMo's divided party may be a drawback for him

Was it a battle of two business Chambers out in the open? Was it a clash of hash tags on social media platform? Or, was it two probable prime ministers fighting it out through debate? Is the Indian election campaign getting influenced by the American technique of canvassing? Who knows? At present, it is premature to predict who is a step closer to being India’s next prime minister.

 

The comparison between Congress scion Rahul Gandhi and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is obvious, as both have been projected as their respective parties' 'prime ministerial candidates' for the 2014 polls.

 

Political pundits are of the view that there are five key issues in all Indian polls: personalities, economic progress, religious identities, the impact of Centre's politics on states and caste. 

 

According to Outlook-MRDA February 2013 survey, Modi is more popular than Gandhi but the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) could still trump the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the next general elections.

Business Standard examines their credentials to hold the top job

 

1)  Modi is easily winning the personality battle. His sweeping electoral conquest in Gujarat for the third consecutive time, the success story of his ‘Gujarat model’ of growth and governance, his captivating oratory with rhetoric and political sarcasm, and no-nonsense style of leadership have made him the darling of the common BJP cadre. 

 

Rahul Gandhi’s famous surname and youthful image make him the Congress’s main hope for elections in 2014, but he has been reluctant to take positions of power and has criticised the dynastic politics to which he owes his ascent. Gandhi suffered a humiliating defeat in Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. The Economist  wrote: “if had any other surname, Rahul Gandhi … … … would surely be pondering a new career”.  The reluctant prince is now a combative campaigner.

Have Your Say | Who fared better? Gandhi at CII, or Modi at Ficci?

 

2)  There is a leader-cadre divide within the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) on the question of Modi. As the Gujarat Chief Minister increasingly captures the imagination of the party cadre, particularly the youth, and his popularity spreads beyond the boundaries of the state, he is also alienated from a chunk of the party leaders, particularly those without a mass base, who fear being eclipsed by him.

 

Gandhi has an initial benefit. The Congress’s refusal to allow any alternative power centre to emerge – whether in the youth Congress or in the central leadership or in the states – will ensure that he has a free run. The 42-year-old leader’s elevation to the Number 2 in the party was smooth and scripted with perfection.

 

3) Gandhi has voiced frustration with the media, which keeps asking him “irrelevant questions” on becoming the Prime Minister or getting married. “It drives me nuts,” he said, describing media hype as “noise that stresses all of us”. “They ask me when will I become the Prime Minister. It’s an irrelevant question. It is all smoke,” Gandhi told the Confederation of Indian Industry annual conference last week. While his mother Sonia Gandhi made Manmohan Singh the PM, who will Gandhi nominate as proxy PM? Gandhi’s statement has sparked off speculation. Is he wary of the comparison with Modi?

 

Modi has virtually admitted his prime ministerial ambition, telling an event in Gandhinagar last week that it is every child’s duty to repay the debt he owes to “Mother India”. “Not only Modi, every child and citizen owes a debt to Mother India.... I hope Mother India gives her blessings and nobody goes away without paying this debt,” Modi was quoted by Press Trust of India as saying. Modi was recently included in the Bharatiya Janata Party parliamentary board. Modi’s reinduction into the top party body as a prelude to his being formally nominated as its prime ministerial candidate.

Have Your Say | Who fared better? Gandhi at CII, or Modi at Ficci?

 

4)  Gandhi’s attempt to appear passionate and informal backfired as critics mocked his friendly addressing of business leaders as 'Boss,' a series of mixed metaphors, and his ponderous and clumsy delivery. He said: “China is referred to as the ‘dragon’ and India as an 'elephant'. But we are not an elephant, we are a 'beehive'," he said. The problem was that, unlike a "beehive which gives every member a voice", India was "clogged" and the voices of most people were not heard.

 

Modi seized on Rahul’s comparison of India with a beehive. “For us this country is Bharat Mata, sacred…. If somebody doesn’t understand Bharat’s legacy and culture, he should not speak about it because his ignorance is destroying the country,” he said.  Kiran Chandra Bandyopadhyay had first depicted the image of Bharat Mata in his eponymous play staged in 1873.

 

5)  Gandhi spoke of empowering 1.3 billion people rather than waiting for a miracle man on a horse – not a clear indication whether this is referred to Modi or to himself. Gandhi emphasized the need for even greater devolution of power. How many times can he say, openly or not, that he has no wish to be a politician, before voters and others take him at his word? He spoke in detail about getting much more decision-making shifted to the “third tier” of Indian politics, in effect to the level of panchayats.

 

Modi recommended devolving some of the external affairs ministry’s powers to the states, privatisation of non-performing public sector units, and a “facilitator’s” role for the government in land acquisition. He added: “There are two recognised models: sell or lock the PSUs. There is a third model we adopted in Gujarat: of professionalising the units, stemming political interference and increasing political intervention to improve the state of affairs.

Have Your Say | Who fared better? Gandhi at CII, or Modi at Ficci?

 

6)  Modi referred to a Jasubehn, whose pizzas could beat even known international brands, in Gujarat. "But before our friends from the media go there … I would like to tell them she died five years back. Her pizzas, however, still have a big market," Modi said. This was a barb aimed at Gandhi who had in a speech in Parliament referred to Kalavati, the widow of a poor farmer who had committed suicide in Vidarbha region of Maharashtra a few years ago.

 

7) Perphaps Gandhi has the potential to attract ‘secular’ allies to the UPA. Modi could potentially scare them away. As Janata Dal (United) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s cold shoulder to Modi over recent months has made it clear, his acceptability to the BJP’s coalition partners will be an important factor,  too

 

Gandhi has made a beginning. Probably, he does not yet know his journey’s end or destination. The end may be unknown but Gandhi must be aware that there is no road back. 

 

Modi’s actions will now impact his aspirations for Delhi.