Assembly Elections 2017: Can Congress halt Kejriwal's Punjab charge?

AAP could be on the cusp of creating history in Punjab but Congress could play spoilsport

Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP’s) showing in 2014 was a revelation of sorts for not just the party but for observers as well. Four out of the 13 MPs elected to Lok Sabha from Punjab were from AAP. Not just did AAP’s four MPs win the parliamentary seat, they also managed to win in most of the assembly constituencies in these seats. In all, AAP’s four MPs won in 26 assembly constituencies. Each of Punjab’s 13 parliamentary seats has nine assembly constituencies each. 
 

The candidates who lost the parliamentary seats managed to win 10 assembly constituencies. Where they lost, their vote share was impressive. 
 

For instance, Bhagwant Mann, suspended from Parliament in the winter session for video-recording security inside its premises, won from Sangrur. By doing so he snapped eight out the nine assembly constituencies in his seat in 2014. In five of the constituencies, Mann got more than 50% of the vote share. This despite the fact that Mann was up against Akali heavyweight and sitting MP Sukhdev Dhindsa.   In fact in 10 out of the 26 constituencies won by AAP’s winning candidates, more than 50% of the voters voted for them. 
 

Even the worst performing winning candidate of AAP – Dharmaveer Gandhi – won in four constituencies in his seat Patiala. In one of them, Gandhi lost by few thousand votes to Preneet Kaur, the former minister of state for external affairs who considers Patiala her pocket borough. Gandhi who was expelled from AAP in 2015 is a respected figure among voters.
 

In three assembly seats, AAP’s winning candidates lost by a margin of less than 2%. There are around 1.2 lakh voters on an average in each of Punjab’s 117 constituencies. If AAP retains its old voters it would need to convince about 2400 more voters to vote in its favour to win in these three seats.  

 

The party could also take solace from its nine losing candidates in the 2014 general elections. Four of them managed to get 25% of the votes despite being pitted against formidable opponents. While its Anandpur Sahib candidate was up against Ambika Soni and Akali heavy weight Prem Chandumajra, the party’s Gurdaspur candidate lost to BJP’s actor turned politician Vinod Khanna.
 

Joining hands with independent candidate Simranjit Bains has also boosted the party’s chances in nine constituencies falling under the Ludhiana parliamentary seat. Bains, who contested as an independent in 2014 finished third, a notch above the AAP candidate.   In 2014, Bains defeated his opponents in two constituencies – Atma Nagar and Ludhiana South- by garnering more than 40% of the votes. No wonder, AAP has given Bains and his brother a ticket from these two constituencies in the upcoming elections.
 

Supreme Court advocate HS Phoolka, who had unsuccessfully contested from Ludhiana in 2014, had managed to win four constituencies in 2014. In one more, the combined vote share of Phoolka and Bains would have taken the party to victory. In yet another one (Ludhiana Central), their combined vote share was just 2% less than the winning Congress candidate. If AAP manages to retain its past voters, the entry of Bains would mean that AAP could win seven constituencies in Ludhiana. If it could get a little over 2000 voters to vote for them in Ludhiana Central, the party could even win eight assembly constituencies in Ludhiana.   
 

This means that after putting its best foot forward AAP could hope to get 41 seats in Punjab’s 117-member constituent assembly. This is 18 seats short of the halfway mark to be able to stake a claim to form a government. Despite Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal’s best efforts, this could be a gargantuan task. 
 

While AAP falls short of the half way mark, the Congress could well go past it. That the tide was turning in Congress favour was evident in 2014 The party got the largest vote share even though it garnered one seat less than AAP and SAD (See table). The party had no star campaigner while and was torn apart by infighting. 

This time the party has Navjot Sidhu, a politician with wide appeal across Punjab. Sidhu along with Amarinder Singh could be a formidable duo who could give the Congress enough firepower to cross the half way mark in the face of a tough challenge from AAP. Sidhu’s and Amarinder’s sway over voters can be gauged from the results in the Amritsar seat in the 2014 elections. Amarinder, the king of Patiala, despite being an ‘outsider’ in Amritsar managed to defeat Arun Jaitley in each one of Amritsar’s assembly constituency barring two. Sidhu who had vacated the seat for Jaitley was tasked with the responsibility of ensuring Jaitley’s victory. But Sidhu refused to back Jaitley’s campaign. Jaitley lost by over a lakh votes to Amarinder.

The so called ‘Modi effect’ in 2014 ensured that despite Sidhu’s recalcitrance to back Jaitley, the finance minister won two assembly constituencies by getting more than 50% of the votes. In one more, he lost by just over 300 votes to Amarinder. Two years on, the ‘Modi effect’ is on the wane. Sidhu meanwhile is yearning to spring back to relevance in his home state after sensing that the SAD-BJP combine stands little chance of retaining power for a third successive term. 
 

With both heavyweights now leading the Congress charge, Kejriwal may have to work harder to inch past the halfway mark.