Centre asks Kerala govt to revisit 'failed' Covid-19 pandemic plan

With an average 20,055 cases and 122 deaths a day in August, Kerala is the Covid hotspot in India today, contributing to 50 per cent of the cases reported in the country.

This has forced the Centre to suggest a revisit by the state on its ‘failed’ Covid strategy.

To assess the ground situation, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya is set to visit the state on Monday and may meet chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan. “Kerala had its own strategy to contain Covid and it did not work this time. If your strategy is not working for 50 days, you should not be continuing with it. There is a need to look into all the aspects, including isolation, contact tracing and containment zones,” National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) director Dr Sujeet Kumar Singh told Business Standard. A rise in the number of cases forced the Opposition parties to come out in public, calling the state’s strategy a “failed” one.

A central panel, headed by Singh, had visited the state earlier this month and suggested several changes in the state’s strategy. These include a relook at containment classification, according to a 7-day moving average, instead of 14 days nationally.

“We have already pointed out the areas that can be further strengthened. We may not be able to take a single yardstick for the whole state, and will have to look at it district-by-district. Even in districts, all areas may not have a high-positivity rate,” Singh added.

Out of the total 45 districts in the country that have a test positivity ratio of over 10 per cent, 13 are in Kerala. The state’s overall positivity rate now stands at 13.97 per cent with a seven-day average of around 10.24 per cent. This can be compared to a national daily positivity rate of 1.88 per cent now and less than 3 per cent in the last 20 days.

Reasons for spike in cases

Of the 38,667 cases reported across the country on August 14, over 49 per cent or 19,104 cases were from Kerala.

“The reason for the recent spike in the number of cases is evident from the seropositivity rate of 44.4 per cent in Kerala. This shows that 55 per cent of the population of the state was not affected during the first wave and are susceptible now. Moreover, the reporting standard in Kerala is much more organised compared to other states,” said Dr Anish TS, a member of the state’s Covid management committee and an assistant professor at the department of community medicine, Government Medical College Hospital, Thiruvananthapuram.

This can be compared to a higher serosurvey rate of 79 per cent in Madhya Pradesh, 76.2 per cent in Rajasthan, and 75.9 per cent in Bihar. With the majority of states showing over 60 per cent rate, it suggests herd immunity in those states.

Experts indicate that for Kerala to achieve herd immunity, it has to touch a seropositivity rate of at least 60 per cent. According to sources, this is the major reason why the state is relaxing norms as it does not want the livelihoods of people to get affected.

The state was also criticised for its adoption of an immunity policy, making it mandatory for people to carry vaccination certificates or negative RT-PCR test results to visit shops. This was termed by the Opposition as anti-people.

Health experts also suggest this is an illogical move as majority of the people vaccinated in the state are senior citizens and those with comorbidities.

Despite rising cases, one positive point for the state is its lower death rate of 0.5 per cent, which is the lowest in the country after Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh and Daman and Diu, and the higher rate of vaccination.