Climate goals at risk, emissions by top emitters rebound: UN report

No credible pathway to restrict global warming to under 1.5 degrees Celsius, it says

The world is falling short of climate change goals set in Paris in 2015 and currently there is no credible pathway to restrict global warming to under 1.5 degrees Celsius, said the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on Thursday.

The agency's 'Emissions Gap Report 2022-The Closing Window' called for an urgent system-wide transformation to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) by unprecedented levels in eight years. The report comes weeks ahead of the 27th session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) scheduled from November 6 to 18 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.

The report said that despite a decision by all countries at COP26 to strengthen Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), progress has been woefully inadequate. NDCs submitted this year tackle 0.5 giga tonnes of CO2 equivalent, less than one per cent of projected global emissions in 2030

The full implementation of NDCs and additional net zero emissions commitments point to only a 1.8 degrees Celsius increase. However, this scenario is not credible due to the discrepancy between current emissions, short-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets.

Unconditional NDCs are estimated to give a 66 per cent chance of limiting global warming to about 2.6 degrees Celsius over the century. For conditional NDCs, those that are dependent on external support, this figure is reduced to 2.4 degrees Celsius.

“Current policies alone would lead to a 2.8°C hike, highlighting the temperature implications of the gap between promises and action,” said the UNEP report.

Greenhouse gas emissions by China, India, Russia, Brazil and Indonesia GHG emissions rebounded in 2021, exceeding levels before 2019. “The highest increases between 2019 and 2021 were observed in Indonesia and China, at 6.8 per cent and 5.9 per cent respectively,” the report said.

“The top seven emitters (China, the EU27, India, Indonesia, Brazil, the Russian Federation and the United States of America) plus international transport accounted for 55 per cent of global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in 2020. Collectively, G20 members are responsible for 75 per cent of global GHG emissions,” said the report.

However, CO2 emissions rebounded to 2019 levels in 2021, with global coal emissions exceeding 2019 levels. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions remained steady from 2019 to 2021, and fluorinated gases continued to surge.

The global average per capita GHG emissions was 6.3 tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e; tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2020. The US remains far above this level at 14 tCO2e, followed by Russia at 13 tCO2e, China at 9.7 tCO2e, Brazil and Indonesia at about 7.5 tCO2e, and the European Union at 7.2 tCO2e.

India remains far below the world average at 2.4 tCO2e.

The report suggested remedial measures in six areas: electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems.

It estimates a global transformation to a low-carbon economy would require $4 trillion to 6 trillion in investment a year and suggested six sets of measures to raise such resources, including carbon pricing and creating a market for low-carbon technologies.

"The emissions gap is a by-product of a commitments gap. A promise gap. An action gap. That gap must be filled, starting with COP27 in Egypt," said UN secretary general Antonio Guterres in a video message ahead of the report's release.