Confounding Covid: Higher positivity rate in higher-vaccination districts

Data from 42 most affected districts by positivity rate show that these on average have higher vaccinated population than the rest of the country

Logic dictates that higher vaccination should translate into fewer cases and better protection against Covid-19. But a Business Standard analysis shows that the converse is true. Data from 42 districts with more than 10 per cent positivity rate (August 18-24) reveal that these districts have fared better than the rest of the country in vaccinating their population.

The 42 districts, which include all 14 districts of Kerala and a majority of districts from the Northeast, have administered at least one vaccine dose to 46.2 per cent of their population. And 15.2 per cent of the eligible people in these districts were fully vaccinated as on August 24. By comparison, average partial vaccination across the rest of the districts of India stood at 35 per cent.

More importantly, an analysis of the 29 districts with positivity rates between 5 per cent and 10 per cent shows that even they are better vaccinated than the rest of the districts. These 29 districts had been able to administer at least one dose to 38.3 per cent of their people and fully vaccinate 11.5 per cent. The rest of the districts with less than 5 per cent positivity were able to cover only 35 per cent of people with the first dose and 9.8 per cent with both doses.

While Kerala certainly has one of the highest vaccination rates among Indian states, further data analysis reveals that the high-positivity districts have better vaccination rates than the rest.

Two districts of Rajasthan (Churu and Hanumangarh), for instance, were able to vaccinate 40.5 per cent of their population partially, and 12.3 per cent fully. Compare this with the average for the rest of the state – 38.9 per cent and 11.9 per cent, respectively.

The reason for vaccination not doing enough to stave off infection is partly that the rates of the fully vaccinated population are still below 20 per cent in most districts. More importantly, as the recent data from the US and Israel indicate, vaccines are effective against serious infections, not at preventing infections, especially against coronavirus variants.

Until vaccination has covered the entire population, or until the threat of variants looms, herd immunity may remain a hypothetical construct.

An analysis of countrywide figures shows that if India keeps to its current vaccination rate (5.3 million doses per day), it would be able to fully vaccinate the entire eligible population only by April 2022. And the total population of those above 18 years of age will be partially vaccinated only by January 2022.

If the country needs to fully vaccinate the entire population by January 2022, it would need to increase its current rate of vaccination by three times and administer nearly 15 million people daily.