Covid-19 cases declined in the post-festive season, but so did testing

BS Analysis shows that 31 of the 35 states/UTs for which data is analysed, reported a decline in testing

Weeks after the festive season, while Covid-19 infections across the country continued to decline, so did the daily testing numbers. While the total number of cases post Diwali and Dussehra dropped to less than 12,000, the number of tests were down by more than 22 per cent over the pre-festive season.

Of the 35 states/UTs for which data is analysed, 31 reported a decline in testing.

Some states were exceptions and it shows in their test numbers. In West Bengal, for instance, the number of tests went up in the 20 days following Durga Puja festivities. This was accompanied by an increase in the number of cases as well, which rose 23 per cent to 845 daily cases.

A similar trend could be seen in Jharkhand. However, in Bihar, where the total number of tests went up, the number of cases remained minuscule. It is important to note that over 90 per cent of the total tests done in Bihar daily are rapid antigen and not the gold-standard of testing, the RT-PCR test.

In Tripura, however, even though the number of tests rose, the cases came down.

How do the experts view these numbers?

“The problem is that when you test in the absence of clinical symptoms, the virus will continue hanging around and show positive results. The data of public importance is deaths and severity of illness,” said Jayprakash Muliyil, Chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the ICMR NIE.

Muliyil also said that breakthrough infections would happen, but since most immunity is India is induced by natural infection, it is expected to last much longer. “In countries such as US where people had vaccine induced immunity much more breakthrough cases are happening. This also explains the large number of cases we saw in Kerala since their immunity was not through natural infection,” he added.

The number of deaths has also come down from 408 daily deaths during the pre-festive season to 280 deaths in the post-festive season. The fatality rate has remained stagnant to 1.35 per cent. However, some states have witnessed a rise in daily deaths. In Karnataka, daily deaths have increased from  6 to 14 in the pre- and post-festive season, respectively. Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu witnessed an almost doubling of deaths, from 28 to 51 and 13 to 22, respectively, during this period.

According to a study, scientists said that even in case of natural infection the antibody level may fall after a year but it will plateau and continue to have T-cell or the memory cell response for a long time.

“If we are lucky the immunity from Covid-19 could last a long time too. The evidence from Sars1 shows that the immunity did not disappear even after 18 years,” Muliyil added.