India's vaccine supplies to improve as it braces for Covid-19 third wave

India has vaccinated 37.2 million people with both doses of a vaccine, and about 135.5 million have received at least the first jab

Supplies of Covid-19 vaccines are expected to rise sharply by the end of this year as more candidates become available and raw material bottlenecks are ironed out. This suggests that India will be in a better position to handle a likely third wave, provided it doesn’t strike earlier than year-end.

So far, India has vaccinated 37.2 million people with both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine, and about 135.5 million have received at least the first jab. 

Several Indian states have raised concerns over the depleting stocks of vaccines available with them, which will hamper their ability to go ahead with the inoculation drive. Maharashtra, for example, has decided to use the available stocks to vaccinate those above 45 years and suspend the inoculation drive for the 18-44 age group for now.

However, data from analysts shows that vaccine supplies are likely to improve over the coming months. According to a Yes Securities research report, by September, the domestic capacity to make vaccines will rise to around 200 million doses per month, up from the current 90 million doses a month. By December, the capacity could further scale up to 265 million doses per month.

This assumes that the Indian manufacturing sites for the Russian vaccine, Sputnik V, would start production and Cadila Healthcare, too, would begin to manufacture its DNA-plasmid vaccine ZyCoV-D. Yes Secu­r­ities analysts assume that Aur­o­b­i­n­do Pharma, which is said to be wo­­r­­k­­ing on multiple vaccines, wo­u­­l­d also start production by December.

Meanwhile, Covaxin maker Bharat Biotech is in the process of ramping up its capacities. Last month, the Centre said that the plan was to scale up Covaxin production by almost 10 times from the current production levels of 10 million doses per month. By September, the target is to reach a production capacity of 100 million doses per month as three public sector enterprises would manufacture Covaxin along with Bharat Biotech. Overall, the company plans to reach an annual production capacity of 700 million doses. 

Serum Institute of India (SII), on the other hand, is working to develop new vendors for the raw materials it needs. In a recent  interview, SII CEO Adar Poona­walla had indicated that it could produce 50 per cent more doses of the Novavax vaccine if it could get a smooth supply of raw materials. 

SII is stock-piling the Novavax vaccine, which is yet to receive the nod from the US Food and Drug Ad­m­in­istration. The company has a target to make 50 million doses of Nova­vax per month and around 100 million doses of Covishield (the Oxford­-AstraZeneca vaccine) per month.

That’s not all. Zydus Cadila is targeting an annual production capacity of 240 million doses or so. V K Paul, member-health, NITI Aayog, indi­c­ated last month that Biological E’s vaccine candidate, which is ente­ri­ng the third phase of clinical trials now, may also be available by August.

Besides these, foreign vaccine makers such as Pfizer and Moderna are expected to supply doses to the Indian market over the next few months.

Yes Securities analysts said that 20 per cent of vaccines produced in the US will be exported to India in the next few months. “Extrapolating the same, we expect vaccine imports for FY22 to range between 155 and 170 million units,” they said in the report.

The analysts estimated that 5.6 billion people need to be vaccinated globally (as 30 per cent of the population is below 18 years): “US (250 million) and Euro zone (320 million) will cover a major part of their adult population in the next few months, while China (1 billion) will completely rely on its indigenous vaccines to inoculate its adult population.” 

The report added, “Effectively, US vaccine manufacturers will have around 4 billion of the world population to cater to after the US attains herd immunity. Given that India’s adult population of 1 billion will account for one-fourth of the potential 4 billion market for US vaccines, India is likely to get 20‐25 per cent share of the US vaccine exports.”