Covid cases plateauing in parts but keep guard up: Health Ministry

India’s Covid trajectory in the ongoing Omicron surge seems to be on a declining trend but the high positivity rate means that the wave is yet to turn a corner, experts say. Countrywide cases have been below the 300,000-mark for the past three days and below the peak level of 414,000-plus daily reported cases during the second wave, but the daily positivity touched 19.59 per cent on Thursday.

A cautiously optimistic health ministry said on January 27 that there are early indications of a plateauing of cases in certain geographies. “The trend needs to be observed and required precautions need to be continued,” the health ministry said.

The top 10 states in terms of active cases make for more than 77 per cent of the total active cases in the country, according to government data.

With home antigen tests gaining popularity like never before, revised guidelines that limit the testing of asymptomatic individuals have meant that a large number of cases are going undetected or unreported. This has made it difficult for epidemiologists to detect a peak as well.

That said, experts believe Omicron in itself is a different pandemic, unlike all the previous waves. Some experts have suggested two sets of possible peaks in India for the Omicron variant — first in the urban areas followed by a dip in the number of cases and then a peak in the rural areas.

“This wave will not follow the traditional bell-shaped epidemiological curve in India, unlike other parts of the world because of the change in norms and also the way the virus is behaving now… By the end of February, we’ll see a decline in the peak,” said Chandrakant Lahariya, epidemiologist and public policy expert.  

Delhi lifts some restrictions 

In metros such as Delhi and Mumbai, the positivity rate has been declining over the last week. The national capital, even though it has seen an increase in cases over the last two days, saw a decline in positivity rate to around 10.5 per cent. Encouraged by this, the state government has decided to lift certain restrictions such as weekend curfew, and has allowed restaurants and cinema halls to open with 50 per cent capacity. The limit on the number of guests at weddings has been raised to 200 from 20, while night curfew continues.
 

States showing a decline in positivity include Maharashtra, Odisha, Delhi, West Bengal, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Meanwhile, the ones that have seen an increase in cases and positivity rate include Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.

Why Omicron wave is different

Epidemiologists stress that India is not one region and, therefore, the pandemic will take its own course in every area. The rural-urban shift of the virus aside, Jacob John, senior virologist and former professor, Christian Medical College, Vellore, cites another reason why this pandemic is different.

“There is no case of pneumonia being reported nor is there a clamour for oxygen as seen in the devastating second wave,” he said. “For earlier variants, there was evidence that they evolved in human transmission, but we do not have clear evidence for Omicron. Its antecedents are a mystery.”

The government, while stating that Omicron has become the dominant variant in India in January, also said that Delta has not gone away yet. “We need to know if, when Omicron has gone down, will Delta survive,” John added.

According to latest health ministry figures, 400 districts in India are reporting more than 10 per cent weekly positivity rate.

Kerala, for instance, saw a rise in the Omicron variant even before Delta’s onslaught was over. A source indicated that almost 90 per cent of the fresh cases identified in the state now are Omicron-related. The state’s test positivity rate has increased to almost 50 per cent. “We expect the peak to continue in the southern states for the next 12-15 days,” said Samuel Koshy, president of the Indian Medical Association, Kerala.

In Gujarat, which has 12 districts with a positivity rate higher than 10 per cent, the number of daily tests has dropped by over 20 per cent — from 130,000 on January 21 to around 100,000 in the fourth week of January 2022.