Crowded Leaderboard throws up many possibilities

Everyone is an expert ex post facto; nothing like 20:20 hindsight. TV statisticians predict, on the basis of what players who are high up on the leader board averaged on particular holes and on particular days from all of their cumulative outings over the years at the Masters, what the likely outcome on Saturday and Sunday will be.  It is as though players do not age, the swing does not shift, the weather has no effect and the strength of mind does not waver in the face of changing circumstances. The fact is that each year is a completely new situation. A millimetre less or more turn can make a difference of thirty or forty feet a couple of hundred yards away. That can make a difference between getting a birdie or a double bogey, as shots from off the greens can be not only dicey but, despite a good strike, can easily roll into three putt territory and even off the green. 

The difficulty of putting on these surfaces can best be visualised by the wager offered to average, mid week amateur golfers by Nick Price, the great Zimbabwean golf pro who won three majors in his scintillating career. He bet that he would beat such golfers over eighteen holes, where he would play the full course from tee to green but the weekend Amateur would only have to putt out from a spot selected by Price on each green. In other words, he was giving two or three strokes on every hole, knowing full well that the weekend golfer would typically take between 40 and 50 putts for the eighteen holes on those greens. Nobody stepped forward!

The weather was exquisitely delicious, with gentle breezes wafting small white clouds across pure azure skies. After the terrors of the last two days, this was perfect golfing weather and real pyrotechnics were expected from the golfing greats, most of whom were in position to contend. However, that was not to be as the leaders gained only two shots over yesterday’s -4 and some likely challengers (Michelson/ Rory) simply could not quite get the rust of winter off. Mickelson was on a roll and the galleries were being drawn to him as he opened birdie, birdie. Then he double bogeyed the third which is almost drivable, by first driving into a mid fairway bunker, then getting out poorly and finally, uncharacteristically, chunking his very simple third to the green and rolling back down the slope. He never recovered and the prospect of his being the oldest winner of the Masters has faded into oblivion. He just makes too many bogies and not enough birdies anymore. 

Rory could not get anything going and is now too far back to be in any reckoning unless he shoots a 61 on Sunday as those ahead of him are no slouches and will also be climbing up that greasy pole to be on top.

The leader board is now really crowded. Everybody leaves shots out there and, like Justin Rose sank everything on the back nine to score the best round of the day at 5 under, should somebody’s putter get red hot on the Sunday he can leave the field behind. The last two pairings (the final pair being non US and the second last pair being from the US makes it look like a Ryder Cup reprise in a different format) will probably throw up the winner, but there will certainly be strong challenges from Australia’s Adam Scott and South Africa’s last remaining  hope for this year, Charl Schwartzel (who together with Jordan Spieth shot a second best four under for the day).  

The master class for the day was by Jordan Spieth, the only one in the fray to have ever won the Masters. He narrowly missed several birdies and even an eagle and never lost his composure. On his  approach to the 15th on Saturday, which  he had quadrupled on day one, he carefully  ‘stalked’ the shot from every angle, measured out the distance, checked the wind speed and then executed the strike with complete commitment resulting in a tap in birdie. In his post game interview he expressed that comIng from 10 shots behind was no great shakes as he could only climb while the leader by four shots on day one was almost certain to descend. He figures (with confidence, not arrogance) that  this course requires huge imagination and creativity, of  which he has a large store, and should he start out strongly on Sunday he should win. Sometimes leaders try to protect their lead on this course but that is a sure shot way to perdition, he opines. The hot money is certainly shifting to him but I will remain steadfast to my prediction of a win by Fowler.

All of the 30-40,000 (correct figures are a carefully guarded secret) patrons start filtering towards succeeding holes as soon as the first hole is cleared by the final pair. By the 9th there are veritable crowds at each viewing spot and the roars and groans multiply in volume. The first nine looks as desolate as a battleground where there are no survivors. The unfolding raw drama, and the promise of much more to come on Sunday, is inevitable in this greatest of sporting arenas upon this planet. The mild weather of Saturday produced no great break outs; will the predicted mild weather on the Sunday produce similar results? Rival camps are arguing as to who will win but that answer is written on the soft breezes of Sunday. 

Wait...!