Despite higher Covid cases, Kerala model still a success: Experts

Kerala has so far reported the second-highest number of Covid cases and deaths in the country and is consistently contributing to over 50 per cent of fresh cases reported. Yet experts say the state’s containment strategies — touted as a model by global agencies that rhapsodised about the state flattening the curve — are still one of the better managed in India, detecting one in every six cases.   

With a robust public health system in place to handle exigencies, the state is equipped to tackle high caseloads — an average of 244 deaths and 4,522 cases a day so far in December; 282 deaths and 5,772 cases in November; and 213 deaths and 9,284 cases in October.

The state government, epidemiologists, and industry veterans say this is not a cause for concern since the state has a higher detection rate evenly balanced with international standards, and also a lower death ratio of 0.82 per cent. “In India, one in every 25-30 Covid infections are detected. In Kerala, this comes to one in every six cases based on the latest serosurvey. The other better performing states are Maharashtra, with one in 12 cases, and Karnataka, with one in 16 cases. Hence, Kerala is on a par with global standards,” says Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, epidemiologist and public policy expert.

Lahariya indicates that the success in any pandemic management is the delay in the transmission of the disease. Hence, the state has one of the lowest seropositivity rates, followed by Maharashtra. “Since the state was successful in reducing the transmission at an early stage, it also has a higher susceptible population, resulting in higher numbers,” he adds.

Another factor that shows the efficiency in the state’s management is the predominant ageing population and higher comorbidity rate. 

“We have a larger number of non-communicable diseases like heart ailments, cancer, respiratory disorders, kidney and liver conditions. Yet, a lower death ratio of 0.82 per cent shows efficient planning. We were also successful in delaying the peak of the pandemic. Kerala is a better success story, compared to other states, in terms of contact tracing as well,” says Dr P K Jameela, a member of the state planning board and a former director of the health department. She adds that the advantage with a majority of the cases in Kerala is under the less severe Category A.

While accepting the fact that Kerala has done better than many states, Dr S S Lal, former official with the World Health Organization, and a Congress candidate in the last Assembly elections, says the state failed when it tried to project it as ‘Kerala model’, hiding real numbers. 

“There was an effort to over-project the Kerala model. Higher numbers are a cause for concern, although we may be ahead of other states due to a long-prevailing better and low-cost health infrastructure. But there is a lack of transparency around the numbers.”