Election fever? States holding elections slow down Covid-19 testing

Most states have either pulled back on testing or not increased it enough to account for rising infections. Kerala reduced its daily testing by a fifth

Ideally, states going into election should follow a rigorous testing strategy, given the possibility that rallies and door-to-door campaigning can turn into super spreader events. But data from India shows that there is a tendency to dial down testing during elections.

Last year, Bihar decreased its testing during the election phase, and now almost all Indian states in the election mode seem to have either done the same or not increased it enough. Bihar reduced its testing after the model code of conduct was announced, Assam and Kerala have followed in its footsteps during this election. So, while Kerala was testing 61,806 samples on February 26--the day the model code of conduct was announced--on April 6, the last day of the election, this figure had reduced to 49,250 tests. On the other hand, Assam was conducting nearly 13,300 daily during this entire period with no increase in testing.

Although India increased its daily tests by 50 per cent during this period, West Bengal could ramp up its testing by a third. The only states that seem to have performed better than the daily average were Puducherry and Tamil Nadu, which ramped up testing by 57 per cent and 63 per cent, respectively.

So, India added 15.7 per cent to its total cases since February 26; Assam only added 0.6 per cent, and West Bengal added 4 per cent to its case tally during this period. Kerala added 8.8 per cent, and Tamil Nadu added 6.7 per cent to its tally during this period. Surprisingly, the case additions from election states were lower than the rest of the country despite politicians and people flouting Covid norms at rallies.

In terms of deaths, the only state to buck the trend was Kerala. India’s death tally increased 6 per cent between February 26 and April 6, Kerala’s death figure jumped by 13.1 per cent. Assam, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu added less than 3 per cent to their total fatalities due to Covid-19.

West Bengal added just 0.9 per cent. XXX

A comparison from Bihar’s election last year shows that at the time, India’s growth rate in cases far exceeded Bihar’s due to pull back in the state's testing.  Total cases in the country increased by 46 per cent between September 25 (date of announcement of model code of conduct for Bihar elections) and November 7 (last date of polling), but, in Bihar, the corresponding increase was just 27 per cent. While Bihar kept decreasing its testing a month after polling as well, the state added more in terms of deaths between November 8 and December 8 than India.

Daily cases, however, suggest that the situation can still worsen. In West Bengal, for instance, daily cases have increased 9-times; in Tamil Nadu, there is a 7-times increase. So, there is a chance that daily infections can edge up in these states as well. But this would only show if there is increased testing in these areas. Otherwise, it is usually observed that states that do not seem to test earlier find many more infections later.

Kumbh and Covid

In this regard, Uttarakhand has done better with its testing strategy. The state was testing nearly 8,000 samples daily a month before the Kumbh was to start. On March 10, it doubled its testing to 18,034 tests. It has since doubled its testing again. On April 6, the state had tested 34,968 samples.

The positivity rate has increased from 0.1 per cent to 1.6 per cent. India’s positivity rate on Wednesday was 9.6 per cent.

Testing in Haridwar has increased from 1,800 samples daily on February 10 to 13,850 on March 11 and 21,340 on April 6.

The positivity rate has increased from 0.1 per cent to 1.6 per cent. India’s positivity rate on Wednesday was 9.6 per cent.