Explained: What if the Covid-19 virus was leaked from a laboratory

A paper published by the WHO on March 30, 2021 claimed manmade origin of the virus was "extremely unlikely". This view is now being challenged

The first cases of Covid-19 appeared in Wuhan, China, at the Huanan Seafood Market in late 2019. A year-and-a-half later, the origins of the virus that has led to a pandemic and how it became capable of infecting humans remain a mystery. This is a zoonotic virus, which originated in bats and likely jumped species to arrive as infected frozen meat via the “cold chain” at the Huanan Seafood Market. From there, it jumped to humans. This was the hypothesis in a paper published by the WHO on March 30, 2021, which claimed manmade origin was “extremely unlikely”. This view is now being challenged.

What’s the other hypothesis?

That the virus was being researched and experimented with in a laboratory and somehow got released into the “wild”. The Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) is near the seafood market where the first cases were identified. The WIV is a leading bio-research centre. It has been researching bat coronaviruses for 10 years. Wuhan is a major pharmaceutical research and production centre, which manufactures a large percentage of the world’s drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). The wilder conspiracy theorists assume China was trying to create a bio-weapon.

Why is this possibility now considered plausible?

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says data was withheld from the team that wrote the report released in March and the lab leak possibility requires investigation. US expert Anthony Fauci also says a lab leak cannot be ruled out.

Statements by the WHO and Fauci have to be taken seriously. In addition, a classified US intelligence report saying three researchers at the WIV were in hospital in November 2019, before the virus officially began infecting humans, has been published in US media.

What is the fallout?

US President Joe Biden has commissioned a fresh report “urgently”. An US intelligence team will be trying to find out more. Biden’s decision to investigate further and a statement that he would release the report has set off a geopolitical storm. China is accusing the US of spreading conspiracy theories and disinformation.

What is the truth?

We’ll probably never know the truth, not for sure. Genetic researchers can figure out a lot by looking at the genome and the mutation rate, etc. But they can’t prove for sure if this was modified in a lab or it wasn’t.

How does it matter?

The geopolitical dimensions of the row can lead to much unpleasantness. China is lashing out at other nations where the lab leak theory is being considered. Given China’s key position as the world’s second largest economy and its aggressive diplomatic stance, this could spiral into a set of trade disruptions, at the least.

The implications for global he­althcare are more concerning.

Why would this controversy affect future healthcare?

Viruses jump species all the time. This is the third SARS family epidemic in the past 20 years. Plus, there’s Ebola, Nipah, etc. This pandemic has shown the world how devastating such a new virus may be, and the world must be prepared for the next epidemic. It could occur naturally with a zoonotic virus making a species jump. Or it could happen because a careless experimenter released a virus into the wild.

That second possibility has to be considered and ruled out in future, if that is at all possible.

How can lab leaks be prevented?

Bio-research will never stop. Indeed, it cannot — vaccines and other drugs depend on it. But there can be more transparency and higher safety standards around it. One of the things China has said is that the US should open its labs for international inspection. Actually, while China may not have meant it seriously, that is actually a possibility.

Could we have international inspection teams for bio laboratories? 

By analogy, international teams do inspect nuclear facilities. No nation will let all its nuclear or bio facilities be inspected. But more transparency in bio-rese­arch and globally agreed tighter safety standards would certainly be desirable. This pandemic has already led to more cross-border cooperation in the science community. That’s how the virus genome was decoded quickly and vaccines developed at great speed. Perhaps this will result in more cooperation and coordination becoming the norm.