Glasgow COP26: Riding on 450 GW, India to ask for more carbon space

Fissures between developed and developing world expected to widen

The global climate conference, CoP26, in Glasgow will see a clear divide between the developed and the developing world, with the latter holding the Global North accountable for climate financing and the developed countries expecting headline climate commitments from them in return.

“Net Zero” will be a key theme. A “Net Zero” tracker portal by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit and the University of Oxford indicates 135 countries, covering 62 per cent of the world’s population, have a “net zero” target year. There are 617 private companies that have also declared a net zero target.

India is not one of them and faces pressure from the developed world to declare a net zero target year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its global energy review 2021 noted: “Emerging markets and developing economies now account for more than two-thirds of global CO2 emission, while emissions in advanced economies are in a structural decline, despite an anticipated 4 per cent rebound in 2021.”

Carbon emission fell by a record 5.8 per cent during pandemic-struck 2020 but with economies around the globe shrugging off its impact, the IEA believes, the emissions will also be the highest ever.

The rebound is kicking in with energy demand witnessing a sharp spike, especially in China, the European Union, and India. China, which has committed itself to net zero by 2060, is planning to mine more coal as it faces an energy crisis. Reports indicate China will see close to a 5-6 per cent increase in coal production by the end of this financial year as it opens new mines. China is the world’s largest coal producer and user. It mined 3.8 billion tonnes of coal in 2020.

In comparison, India’s current coal production, at 700 million tonnes, looks reasonable despite growing energy needs. Senior government officials say the country has committed itself to its renewable energy targets and it will “impact coal usage but how can a country aiming for double digit GDP growth commit to reduce its primary fuel?”

Indian ministers, such as Power and Renewable Energy Minister R K Singh, have said on several occasions that the western world should vacate the carbon space for the developing countries.

Bhupender Yadav, Union minister for environment, forest and climate change (MoEFCC), who will represent India at CoP26, has repeatedly said there was no need for such a long-term target. In recent media interviews, Yadav said: “We haven’t claimed anything like rejecting net zero goal. Our leadership will announce our climate goal at an appropriate time and appropriate forum.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the CoP26 on the first two days when the countries read their national statements with climate commitments, targets, demands, and approaches.

As part of its plan, India is pitching the 450 Gw of renewable energy capacity addition by 2030 and reducing emission, which the Union government says the country is on track to achieve. While net zero remains shrouded in mystery, India has made its stand clear on climate financing. Senior officials said the Indian government would maintain its stand on urging the developed world to provide climate financing of $100 billion per year.

A statement by Canada and Germany, which are developing the “climate finance delivery plan” (CFDP), by the developed countries said it was clear $100 billion financing by 2020 was not met by the developed world. By now, climate financing needs (of developing countries) have also burgeoned with nations revising their demand with rising energy needs. India’s nationally defined contribution, or climate action plan, mentioned the need of $2.5 trillion by 2030. African nations estimated they would need $1.3 trillion a year by 2030. The UNFCC report on needs assessment brings up a figure of $6 trillion just for 40 per cent of climate plans submitted.

Arunabha Ghosh, chief executive officer, Centre for Energy, Environment and Water, said while the CFDP was the first step, the success of CoP26 hinged on developing countries securing adequate financing. “The $100 billion (financing) is only the floor and not the ceiling. Developing countries need up to $5.9 trillion by 2030 to finance less than half the actions needed to fulfil their NDCs,” Ghosh said.

Additionally, India will also ask the Global North to set up a mechanism for compensating the ‘loss and damage’ caused due to climate change-related events.

A group of 24 like-minded developing countries are also on the same table with this demand, said Indian officials.

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