Have lockdowns been successful? Vaccination data shows a different picture

While cases have certainly slowed down, the pace of vaccinations has also taken a hit. Daily vaccinations in the 45+ category are growing by just 0.5%

At the peak of the second wave, India was registering over 400,000 daily Covid-19 infections. However, the concern for administration was not that cases were galloping fast but that most states did not have the requisite infrastructure to deal with rising infections. Thus, many states and districts decided to impose lockdown. This was expected to serve two purposes -- ease the pressure on health resources, and reduce the transmission rate.

States have been able to achieve both of these objectives. Against an occupancy rate of 95-99 per cent for hospital beds, ventilators and ICUs, most cities now have the requisite capacity available. Delhi, on Friday, had 3,585 of the 6,970 ICU beds available and 849 of 2,563 ventilators available. Similarly, Mumbai had 595 of the 2,865 ICU beds and 180 of the 1,496 ventilator beds available.

Delhi imposed a one-week lockdown on April 20, with stricter curbs placed on May 9. In Maharashtra, the lockdown-like restrictions were imposed on April 14, but more restrictions were placed on April 22.

Cases in Delhi have declined from a peak of 28,000. The national capital, on Thursday, registered 1,072 cases. Maharashtra had hit a peak of 68,000 infections; on May 27, it had registered 21,273 new cases. Most states have followed this trajectory since the imposition of lockdowns.

While lockdowns have successfully curbed infections, easing the pressure on infrastructure, a Business Standard analysis shows that states have fallen short on their vaccination targets. Ideally, the lockdown should have been utilised to administer the first dose to a larger mass of the susceptible population. While the government only opened up the vaccination in the 18-44 category on May 1, those in the 45+ criteria could have been vaccinated faster. But data indicates that instead speed of vaccination slowed drastically in most states.

Although there was no nationwide lockdown in the second wave, unlike the first one, most state governments had imposed restrictions since May 1. This is also the time that the pace of vaccination declined rapidly. For the fortnight ending April 1, the daily growth rate of immunisation was 6.4 per cent; this declined to 4.2 per cent on April 17 and crashed to 1.1 per cent on May 3. Since then, the compounded daily growth has remained 0.5 per cent.

For most states, the decline has been significant. In Delhi, the growth rate of vaccination has declined from 6.5 per cent on April 1 to 0.5 per cent. For Maharashtra, vaccination growth has come down from 7.2 per cent to 0.7 per cent. While Kerala was vaccinating 8 per cent of its above 45 population until April 1, the daily vaccination growth has reduced to 0.2 per cent.

While the growth rates are expected to come down as a more significant chunk of the population is vaccinated, in India’s case, there are still 65 per cent of people in the 45+ age group that haven’t even received their first dose. For some states like Jharkhand, the proportion is even higher at 70 per cent.

While we cannot say whether it is vaccine hesitancy or non-availability of vaccines that is the cause for the falling vaccination pace, the states do need to ramp up their vaccination efforts.

Only seven of the 36 states and UTs have been able to pick up their vaccination pace in the last week. While the increase for most states like Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Karnataka, Jammu & Kashmir and Gujarat has been a marginal 0.1 per cent, in West Bengal, the vaccination growth has increased by 0.2 per cent in the last week alone. Andhra Pradesh has witnessed a phenomenal increase of 1.1 per cent in its pace of vaccination. The growth of vaccination in the state at 1.5 per cent is higher than last month's pace.