IMD raises 2022 monsoon forecast to 103% of LPA on likely La Nina effect

Monsoon in core rain-fed areas that are home to bulk of Kharif pulses and oilseeds, is likely to be 106% of LPA

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday updated the forecast for 2022 southwest monsoon to 103 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), from 99 per cent of LPA predicted in April as La Niña conditions are expected to prevail during the entire stretch of the four-month monsoon season.

This could have a positive impact on the retail inflation rate that has galloped to a 95-month high in April at 7.8 per cent, and spur economic growth.

The forecast is with a model error of plus/minus 4 per cent.

The LPA for the seasonal rainfall for the country as whole from 1971 to 2010 is 87 centimetre (cm).

If the forecasts come true, it will be the fourth straight year when the southwest monsoon will be ‘normal’ or ‘above normal’ for the country as a whole - a phenomenon not seen in the recent past - said weathermen.

The Met said that there is just a 23 per cent climatological probability of rainfall this year to be ‘deficient’ or ‘below normal’ across the country.

“Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially, with most parts of the country expected to receive ‘normal’ to ‘above normal’ rainfall, except some parts of East-Central, East, and Northeast India and extreme Southwest Peninsular India, where it is likely to be ‘below normal’,” said IMD, while releasing the second-stage forecast on Tuesday.

Granularly, it said rainfall in Central and South India is expected to be at over 106 per cent of LPA, while in Northeast and Northwest, it is expected to be ‘normal’.

Rainfall in Northeast India is considered to be ‘normal’ if it is within 96-106 per cent of LPA, while in Northwest India, the normal range falls between 92 per cent and 108 per cent of LPA.

“The number of parameters favourable for the Indian monsoon has risen since the time of the first forecast made in April and La Niña, which was earlier expected to turn neutral by August, is now expected to stay throughout the duration of the Indian monsoon,” IMD Director-General (D-G) Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told reporters.

La Niña is considered positive for Indian monsoon.

“From an inflationary expectation point of view, this second-stage forecast is a definite positive. When it comes to inflation, a lot will depend on the actual progress of rains, planting of crops, etc, which will only be known later,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda.

The monsoon in the core rainfed areas of the country - stretching from the central parts of India to the western regions and home to a bulk of the pulses and oilseeds grown during the kharif season - is expected to be ‘above normal’ at 106 per cent of LPA.

This should augur well for the production of both pulses and oilseeds and help in tempering their prices, particularly in the case of oilseeds that have been on the boil since the past few months.

Month-wise, the Met department said in June, - the first month of the four-month season – rainfall is expected to be ‘normal’ between 92 per cent and 108 per cent of LPA.

In June, India gets around 16.54 cm of the estimated 87 cm of rainfall, or around 19 per cent.

On the impact of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole on monsoon as predicted in the second-stage forecast, the Met department said it might act as a barrier. This explains why it has not made an overall forecast of rains being ‘above normal’.

Meanwhile, IMD D-G also said that an epoch of ‘below normal’ rains is ending in the country. Between 2021 and 2030, India might see more years of ‘normal’ rains, while from 2031 to 2040, there could be a greater number of years when rains are ‘above normal’, he added.