India Coronavirus Dispatch: Where do migrants who returned home go now?

Maharashtra positivity rate on the rise, the myth of multiple strains, and herd immunity may not be far away--news on how the country is dealing with the pandemic

What will migrants do? This story explores in fine detail the conditions that led to out-migration from Bihar. As agriculture became less profitable over the decades and agrarian labourers were increasingly replaced by machines, migrating to the cities for work was the only means of survival. Besides, the floods of 1987 left many without an option. A similar situation exists today where many migrant workers from across the country have been forced to return after nationwide lockdowns left them without an income. This time, too, floods have hit the state. Standing maize crops were submerged and paddy seedlings were damaged as well. This has made some rethink if returning was a good idea after all. Read more here.

Maharashtra positivity rate on the rise: In Maharashtra, Covid-19 testing has risen by 7 times since June. Simultaneously, the cumulative positivity rate has also shot up to 20 per cent. This, experts say, indicates a more rapid spread of the virus. Higher testing has also helped in catching the virus early on and thus in improving the state’s recovery rate. Sero-surveys in Pune and Mumbai also indicate the swift spread of the pandemic. State officials, however, say that positivity rate has gone up due to targeted testing. Health workers have been focusing on certain sections of the population that are more prone to the virus like bus drivers, vendors, civic staff, etc. Some local officials however ascribe increased person-to-person contact for the uptick in the positivity rate. Read more here.

In numbers

A city divided: Mumbai’s Covid-19 epidemic could be the largest in the world so far. Data modelling now shows that even a month before the first recorded case, the virus was circulating in low levels across the city. Secondly, by the end of March there likely to be 50,000 cases. While the virus is being called a ‘leveller’, the truth is that it has spread much more in Mumbai’s slums compared to its urban housing spaces.  Comparing data early on in the spread with sero-survey data that came in later shows that most early cases in slums were missed. The city has throughout been facing two simultaneous epidemics: rapid spread in slums and a not-so-rapid spread in non-slum areas. When the rate at which daily new cases were added saw a dip in late May, it was because the virus was being contained to some extent in the slums. This dip in daily growth was short-lived since the non-slum spread soon took over. Read more here.

What sero-surveys tell us: Pune’s sero-survey must be seen as an eye-opener as far as the spread of the disease goes. The findings suggest that nearly half the people in the city may have already been infected. The most important takeaway from this is that testing, despite the significant ramping up of infrastructure, remains inadequate. A vast majority of the people are being missed out by tests. Testing remains the crucial strategy for containment as it is the only way to identify and isolate infected people and those who may have been in contact with them. The sero-surveys indicate the need to ramp up testing even more. Further, a comparison between testing data and sero-survey data for Pune shows that highest prevalence of virus was detected at the ward that been seen daily growth slip over the past couple of weeks. Read more here.

Comment

Myth of multiple strains: An urban legend has gained legitimacy over time in the country — that Covid-19 has multiple strains and some of it are more virulent than others. These claims gained ground after some Gujarat and Odisha state officials claimed that more virulent strains of the virus were prevalent in parts of their states and this was the reason for rapid spread of the virus. However, virologists now say that there is no basis for believing that different strains exist in the country, or in fact, the world. What we have so far are only different clades, or groups, of the virus. By July, most most viruses belonged to Clade 20 and few to Clade 19. This was true for Gujarat or Odisha or the whole world. The myth, experts, now say is a ‘figment of imagination’ that was possibly floated as a cover-up for administrative failure. Read more here.

Herd immunity may not be far away: Many experts earlier opined that for herd immunity to be achieved, at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected. This alarmed many since even with 0.2 per cent of the population infected, the virus had caused widespread devastation. However, emerging studies now show that previous exposure is not required for the body to launch a robust immunity response. For herd immunity to be achieved, vaccinations may not be necessary. All that needs to happen, some research shows, is that enough people build immunity to it. Earlier, it wasn’t clear if antibodies produced in the body were adequate to fight the virus. However, a look at re-infection patterns in South Korea has made experts sceptical about re-infections altogether and thus makes them hopeful that we may in fact achieve immunity earlier than expected. Read more here.