Is variety the spice of life?

A key feature of economic and demographic transformation in India in recent decades has been the change in the Indian diet

That India ranks 100 in a group of 119 countries in the Global Hunger Index in 2017 is abysmal enough regardless of how steeply it has deteriorated in recent years. The higher the rank, the worse is the state of hunger.
 
A key feature of the economic and demographic transformation in India in recent decades has been the change in the Indian diet — a shift away from cereals towards vanaspati oil, eggs, meat, fish and poultry, fruits and vegetables — but with rural-urban variation.
 
This dietary transition is driven by expansion of the middle class, higher female labour force participation (with reduction in recent years), the emergence of nuclear-two income families, a sharp age divide in food preferences (with younger age-groups more susceptible to new foods advertised in the media), and a rapid growth of supermarkets and fast food outlets.

 

The fact that average calorie intake was slightly higher in 2011/12 than in 2004/05 is seen as a reversal of the declining intake of calories over 1983-2005. We offer a more nuanced view.
 
The base year matters. The average calorie intake was lower in 2005 compared to 1994 in rural India. It was also lower in 2012 relative to 1994. However, the calorie intake in 2012 was higher than in 2004/05. So, if the comparison is confined to 1994-2012, there was no reversal.
 
A similar pattern is revealed for urban India. The average calorie intake was lower in 2005 compared to 1994. It declined between 1994 and 2012. However, it was higher in 2012 than in 2005. Thus there was no reversal between 1994 and 2012.

 
The statistics of undernourishment are appalling. The proportion of undernourished among the rural poor has risen over time and accounted for a larger majority of the poor (about 84 per cent in 2011 vis-à-vis 75 per cent in 1993-94). The proportion of undernourished among the urban poor rose but moderately (from 64 per cent in 1993 to 68 per cent in 2011). The poor are thus more likely to be undernourished.
 
The central question is: whether more diversified diets resulted in greater consumption of expensive calories and consequently in reduction of calorie intake?
 
(Real) cost of calories rose consistently between 1993 and 2004, and between 2004 and 2011, across per capita expenditure deciles in both rural and urban areas.

 
In rural India, in the bottom expenditure decile, the cost of 1,000 calories rose by just under three times between 1993 and 2011. In the top decile, the cost rose by three-and-a half times. In urban India, in the bottom decile, the cost rose three times. In the top decile, it was more than five times higher. Thus, across the expenditure deciles, there was a significant switch towards more expensive calories.
 
Our econometric analysis shows that greater affluence is positively related to cost of calories: the higher the per capita expenditure, the greater is the cost of calories. Using an index of diet diversification (akin to the Herfindahl index), we find that the greater the diversity, the higher is the cost of calories. The effect is substantial. The next step in the analysis is the effect of cost of calories on calorie intake. This is negative and more than offsets the positive effect of expenditure on calorie intake.

 
Rejecting the Deaton and Dreze view that lower calorie intake is due to lower calorie “requirements” associated with better health and sedentary lifestyles, we focus on a growing taste for variety as a causal factor in lowering calorie intake. As revealed by the 72nd round of the National Sample Survey for 2014/15, there is considerable convergence between urban and rural lifestyles and consumption patterns. Strong demand for processed and fried foods and snacks with attractive packaging and rich flavours, and sugary beverages is fuelled by aggressive advertising in mass media. The growing “taste” for variety is exhibited by not just the affluent but also by the lower economic strata.

 
Effectiveness of nutrition labelling, regulation of food standards, consumer awareness of healthy diets, food fortification and supplementation, and active involvement of the private sector in adhering to the regulatory standards and nutritional norms cry out for empirical validation.
 
In brief, variety is indeed the spice of life but a likely enemy of nutrition. Kaicker is assistant professor, Ambedkar University Delhi, Kulkarni is lecturer in sociology, University of Pennsylvania, and Gaiha is (honorary) professorial research fellow, Global Development Institute, University of Manchester