Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren seeks to keep his flock together

When Jharkhand Chief Minister (CM) Hemant Soren decided to call a special session of the state Legislative Assembly on Monday and go for a trust test on the floor of the House, it did not come as a surprise to the political pundits.

For Soren has adopted Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal’s goose step on keeping Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) intact and not have his leadership challenged.
 

But it would be remiss of him to draw parallels with the political milieu in Delhi and Jharkhand.

In Delhi, Kejriwal heads a single-party government of the Aam Aadmi Party, while Jharkhand has a coalition government in which the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Congress are allies. JMM MLAs may have reposed faith in Soren. But it does not necessarily apply to the Congress.

The three Congress MLAs - Irfan Ansari, Rajesh Kacchap, and Naman Bixal Kongari - were arrested by West Bengal Police with a cash pile of Rs 45 lakh in July - an indicator that all was not well with Jharkhand’s politics. The party had expelled the three MLAs, alleging they joined hands with the BJP to topple the Jharkhand government.

Before the reported revolt of the Congress MLAs could be settled, another serious issue has come to haunt Soren. The Jharkhand CM has been reportedly indicted in an office of profit case for allotting a mine lease to himself while holding the portfolio.

Governor Ramesh Bais has to take the final call on whether Soren has to be disqualified as member of the state Assembly and barred from contesting elections. Whatever be the outcome, Soren has started the exercise of dealing with the challenges head-on.

If Soren is disqualified, he will resign and again stake claim to form the government. But the state will be plunged into a major political crisis if he is debarred from contesting elections.

In such a scenario, political pundits predicted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could try to approach Congress MLAs who could be more vulnerable than the JMM since they are fewer in number. While JMM has 30 members, Congress has 18 in the 81-member Jharkhand Legislative Assembly. The number reduced to 15 after the suspension of the three MLAs. The breakaway group will require at least 10 members to escape anti-defection norms.

JMM and Soren’s strategists are accordingly drawing up a plan.

“It is all a numbers game that will dominate Jharkhand politics in the days to come. Soren has started working on it,” says Suman Srivastava, a political commentator.

As part of the plan, JMM will be eyeing disqualification of more members from the Legislative Assembly who are under the scanner. It will reduce the strength of the House and pave the way for the ruling party to prove its majority comfortably.

The Congress party has complained to Speaker Rabindra Nath Mahto to disqualify the three MLAs caught with cash. The Speaker on Wednesday adjourned the hearing on the disqualification complaint moved by the Congress legislature party after the three MLAs filed a petition seeking eight weeks’ time to file a reply.

The Speaker has to also decide the fate of the Leader of Opposition Babulal Marandi. Anti-defection complaints had been filed against the BJP legislature party leader in December 2020 after he merged his Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) with the BJP. The case is

pending. Similarly, the membership of Sammari Lal of the BJP is also under the lens in connection with fake caste certificates.

If the five members, besides Soren, are disqualified, the strength of the Jharkhand Legislative Assembly will come down to 75 (from 81). The majority mark would be 33 that the ruling JMM-Congress coalition could easily manage. Besides, it enjoys strong support of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Nationalist Congress Party, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) that has a member each in Jharkhand. Given the option of moving to a court of law, the JMM-Congress government cannot treat the strategy as foolproof, say political observers.

The bigger challenge for Soren would be to announce his successor once he is debarred from contesting elections. Just as well, the leadership of JMM founded by 78-year-old Shibu Soren would come from the family only.

Political watchers quoting family insiders say the discussions had started within the family to find Soren’s successor. Soren’s brother and Dumka MLA Basant Soren, sister-in-law Sita, who is also MLA, and a few senior MLAs close to the family did not agree on the name of Soren’s wife Kalpana. Hemant has been batting for his wife.

Following a dispute, the senior Soren, who is also party president, could forward the name of his wife Rupi. A novice in politics, she has unsuccessfully contested the Lok Sabha election.

Soren is now facing an insoluble dilemma to keep his flock together.