1:50 AM
What ails Arab economies is older than Covid-19
The International Monetary is predicting the economies in the Arab nations of the Middle East and North Africa will contract by 5.4 per cent in 2020-21 due to the covid-19 pandemic and the collapse in international oil prices. (I’ve left out Lebanon and Libya, because they face exceptional circumstances.) This means the Arab MENA region, despite being among the least affected by the pandemic in terms of confirmed cases and deaths, will suffer disproportionate economic pain.
The IMF’s economic outlook for the world shows that economic contraction has been proportionate to the public-health crisis caused by the pandemic in most regions — North America, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia. The US economy is to contract by 4.3 per cent, the Euro zone, Latin America and India by 8.3 per cent, 8.1 per cent and 10.3 per cent, respectively. Conversely, China is expected to grow by 1.9 per cent, which reflects Beijing’s effective containment of early outbreaks.
Now look at Arab MENA region, excluding Israel and Iran. On the public-health front, the Arab nations have done relatively well when compared to many other parts of the world. This is borne out by the data for Covid-19 deaths per million people in the period between December 2019 and October 2020. The ratios for the US, European Union and South American were 673.80, 360.45 and 661.29, respectively. The average for the Arab world was 79.46 per million. For the most populated Arab nations — Egypt, Algeria, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Tunisia — the average was even lower, at 62.21 per million.