MCD election 2017: Threat for AAP govt, Delhi may see early Assembly polls

As Gujarat CM, Modi replaced at least a third of all sitting legislators before assembly polls

The results of the Delhi civic polls lead to some obvious conclusions, and not so obvious near-term possibilities. These include fresh assembly polls in Delhi by the end of the year, the likelihood of several incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Lok Sabha members might be replaced in 2019 Lok Sabha polls and more leaders quitting the Congress party.

1. Modi wave

The BJP victory in the polls is primarily because of the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, brilliantly leveraged by party chief Amit Shah with deft organisational work.
 

It is true that BJP won the last two civic polls as well, but the party campaign in Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) polls focused on Modi’s leadership, not of any local leaders. Today, Shah credited the victory to Modi's leadership.

The emphatic win also suggests that the party has recovered the vote share it received in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, which slipped out of its hand in the 2015 assembly polls. In 2014, the BJP won all seven Lok Sabha seats and a vote share of over 45 per cent. This reduced to 34 per cent in 2015 assembly polls, where Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won 67 of the 70-seats.

The Uttar Pradesh assembly polls have contributed to BJP’s popularity in areas where migrants from eastern UP and Bihar predominate. There was a time when AAP held sway on the ‘purabiyas’ of Delhi.

2. Alarm bells for BJP Lok Sabha MPs

The BJP fielded fresh faces in 267 of 272 municipal wards. It helped BJP beat anti-incumbency, and present itself as a new and improved version under Modi. This should worry incumbent legislators and Lok Sabha members of the party.

As Gujarat chief minister, Modi used to replace at least a third of all sitting legislators before every assembly polls. He led the party to three consecutive assembly victories in 2002, 2007 and 2012. It is likely that Modi and Shah could replace party’s sitting legislators in the forthcoming polls in Gujarat and Karnataka.

Several of BJP’s UP legislators are also hopeful of contesting the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, and party bosses have indicated to them to nurse their putative Lok Sabha constituencies, most of which currently have sitting BJP MPs.

3. The AAP government in Delhi could be short-lived.

AAP founder Shanti Bhushan has gone on record to state that AAP’s hope of having Rajya Sabha representation in 2018 is likely to remain a pipedream. Three Rajya Sabha seats from Delhi fall vacant next year, and AAP is sure to win all with its massive majority in the Delhi assembly. But there is growing dissension in the party against its leadership.

Legislators complain that Delhi Chief Minister and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has surrounded himself with a coterie, and doesn’t interact with them. A split in the party cannot be ruled out, particularly if the BJP was to promise tickets to these legislators in the scenario of a fresh assembly poll.

Then there is the likelihood of at least two dozen AAP members being disqualified in a case related to the office of profit. If this were to happen, a bypoll would be needed on these seats. There is also the matter of the Shunglu Committee report, which has implicated some of AAP’s leading lights in corruption cases.

4. Question mark over Arvind Kejriwal as a challenger to Modi

Until some months back, Kejriwal was this bright star on the Indian political firmament. He was considered as a leader for the future. In the years to come, many expected him to provide the leadership to non-BJP forces. But Kejriwal’s reputation is in tatters.
 

The BJP, Congress and Swaraj Abhiyan campaign to paint him as unreliable has struck a chord. Kejriwal’s forays into Punjab and Goa, while leaving Delhi to his coterie, have not gone down well with the people. The failure in Punjab has been morale busting. It could be that Kejriwal might still rise from the ashes, but there is a long road ahead of him to rebuild his image and that of his party.

5. Continuing failure of the Congress and prospects of a split

The Congress Delhi unit chief Ajay Maken has offered to quit after his party’s abysmal performance. But the results are consistent with the party’s performance in Delhi in 2014 Lok Sabha and 2015 Delhi assembly polls. The defeat is more a reflection on Congress’ rudderless politics and failure of vice president Rahul Gandhi to mount a challenge to Modi then on Maken. The party looks set to lose the forthcoming assembly polls in Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka. It currently has governments in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka.

Already, there is talk that frontline Congress leaders could leave the party to join BJP. There are also efforts to ensure ‘ghar wapsi’ of former Congress leaders like West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar, but that is impossible if Rahul Gandhi is continued to be projected as the party’s pre-eminent leader. But all these efforts are likely to gain traction after the party's latest defeat.